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Greek debt deal ‘not enough’ to save country – diplomat

Front pages of Greek newspapers in Athens today
Front pages of Greek newspapers in Athens today
Image: Thanassis Stavrakis/AP/Press Association Images

CURRENT PLANS TO save Greece from financial collapse would still leave the country with debt far above the maximum level set by its international creditors, a European diplomat said Thursday.

When they tentatively agreed on more help for Greece in October, the leaders of the 17 euro countries said the country’s debt load had come down to 120 percent of its economic output by 2020 – the maximum they said was manageable without external support. The new level is now expected to be closer to 129 per cent, the diplomat said.

The fact that even substantial new help, both from the eurozone and private bondholders, cannot sufficiently decrease Greece’s debt load is one of the main reasons doubts over a second, €130 billion bailout for Athens have emerged.

The diplomat was citing figures from a new report by Greece’s international debt inspectors – the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank.

The report analyses Greece’s growth prospects over the coming years as well as the impact of new austerity measures promised by Athens, a €100 billion debt relief Greece has negotiated with private bondholders and the new bailout.

The diplomat was speaking on condition of anonymity because the report is confidential. He couldn’t say into how much money would be necessary to close the gap between the 129 percent and the 120 percent target. At the moment Greece’s debt is just above 160 percent of economic output and, without the debt relief, it would rise to around 200 percent by the end of this year.

How to close the gap?

The fact that there is a financing gap in the new aid program has been known for some time and is one of the main reasons the debate over the new bailout has heated up in recent days. Politicians – particularly those from rich countries like Germany, the Netherlands and Finland – have cited the so-called debt sustainability analysis for Greece as one of the main elements in their decision over whether to send more money to Athens.

Officials from the eurozone countries, the Commission and the IMF have been discussing for weeks how to close the gap to the 120 percent goal.

The biggest hopes have been laid on the ECB, which holds some €50 billion to €55 billion in Greek government bonds. Since the central bank bought these bonds at a discount – analysts estimate the ECB spent around €40 billion – it stands to make a hefty profit if they get repaid in full.

In recent days, concern has crept back into the markets that Greece could still be forced into a disorderly default on a vital €14.5 billion ($19 billion) bond repayment due next month.

In addition to the financing gap revealed in the new report, politicians in several countries have questioned the commitments of the leaders of Greece’s main political parties to implement promised reforms and cuts even after elections expected in April.

“We can help (Greece), but we can’t pour (money) into a bottomless pit,” Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told German Suedwestrundfunk radio yesterday.

More: Some eurozone countries ‘dont want us any more’ – Greek finance minister>

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Comments (22 Comments)

  • Cyril Butler 16/02/12 #
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    The whole Greek bailout project was a delusional aspiration from the start.

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    • Adam Magari 16/02/12 #
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      Possibly just as delusional as the Irish bailout. Only time will tell but the outlook is far from rosy. The Central Bank cut its growth forecast for Ireland to around 0.7 percent. At least the Greeks didn’t offer a Cowen-Lenihan style blanket bank debt guarantee.

    • Red Squirrel 16/02/12 #
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      It doesn’t both me but ….Central Banks and economists cant even tell you what growth was last month, they revise and revise numbers after the event, how are they meant to be able forecast accurately?

  • Kerry Blake 16/02/12 #
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    A european diplomat talking sense what ever next? Even if this deal does go a head it’s only kicking the can down the road again. I pity the Greek people their going to suffer a lot and not for something that will work…..

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  • Paul O' Callaghan 16/02/12 #
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    Jesus poor Greece, what about us? Let’s worry about ourselves for once. At least the Greeks put up a fight not like the weak Irish. This country is a joke

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    • Keith Banks 16/02/12 #
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      whats your plan Paul?

    • Karl Doyle 16/02/12 #
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      “Our patience will achieve more than our force” – Edmund Burke

    • Donal McCarthy 16/02/12 #
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      Yeah, rioting and burning other people’s stuff really sticks to the ECB.

    • Glyn Carragher 17/02/12 #
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      @Karl “It will be what we achieve that I fear most” Glyn Carragher

    • Gary Clowry 17/02/12 #
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      Poor Greeks.
      “ATHENS — In the wealthy, northern suburbs of this city, where summer temperatures often hit the high 90s, just 324 residents checked the box on their tax returns admitting that they owned pools.
      So tax investigators studied satellite photos of the area — a sprawling collection of expensive villas tucked behind tall gates — and came back with a decidedly different number: 16,974 pools. ”

      “Various studies have concluded that Greece’s shadow economy represented 20 to 30 percent of its gross domestic product. Friedrich Schneider, the chairman of the economics department at Johannes Kepler University of Linz, studies Europe’s shadow economies; he said that Greece’s was at 25 percent last year and estimated that it would rise to 25.2 percent in 2010. For comparison, the United States’ was put at 7.8 percent.”
      http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/02/world/europe/02evasion.html?pagewanted=all

    • Karl Doyle 17/02/12 #
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      Glyn, it is that very attitude you have that got us into this mess.

  • Michael Manson 16/02/12 #
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    Reprimand me if the following comment is wrong or infactual. But the ultimate function of being a member of the EU is one of contributing to the economic welfare to this very community.
    I see Greece as a loose canon. A country which will in the longterm be a financial burden on other EU countries. (including Ireland).
    Greece will never be in a position to repay their debt.
    They will never be in a position to contribute toward EU protocol.

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  • damien chaney 16/02/12 #
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    How much did band aid raise again?

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  • Vic A 16/02/12 #
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    I have been following the Euro Zone crisis for some time and I have read a lot of postulations and comments by posters. The whole debacle is becoming a charade, with accusations and counter accusations. I sometimes wonder how very seemingly intelligent people can make a mockery of a potentially viable project such as the EU.

    I am sure we all know the root cause of the EZ crisis so there is no need for further elucidation. My concern as it is a lot of folks, is the responce and the crisis management OR the lack of it by the European political class. There seems to be a lot of division among the EU establishment and even within caucuses in Europe as to the best way to deal with the crisis. This is obviously expected, given the magnitude of the challenge of the dire financial/economic reality of Europe at the ‘moment’ but this divisions lends credence to those who believe and argue that Europe should be more about trade and economics rather than a political union.

    Lest we forget, in constrast with popular belief Monet et al established the ECSC in an attempt to achieve ‘both ecomonic-common market and political integration’ to forestall future conflicts in the region. I have previously argued that the initial intentions were based on ‘economics’ to revive the Europe after the devastating effects of the World Wars 1 and 2 and humiliation of getting an American ‘bail-out’ in the name of a ‘Marshall plan’. Pardon my naivety- I am neither European nor American and obviously I did not pay enough attention in my history classes. But it was much more than that, as most people would know, it gave birth to the Franco-German axis and the other power in Europe – the UK would have none of it. Enough of the history lesson or more appropriately (Gibberish).

    In a nutshell, Europe has to redefine herself. We have a rich Northern Europe that is unready to share her wealth with her southern partners- in terms of direct payment- akin to similar unions (i.e. US, UK) where rich regions make transfer payments to augment deficiencies in poorer sections of the union. Germany has a valid argument. They say if that was the case it would be ‘one sidedly painful’ . It has being proposed by ‘eminent economists, financial experts,observers and even government officials’ this would be in the form of EUROBONDS where there are mechanisms to ensure collective responsibility or if you like a ‘debt union’. Germany has a point to enforce a fiscal union where governments have to sign up to minimum debt brakes and what us mortals know as prudence. They do have a point!

    I have a problem with their approach though. If you have been been following, I have not not mentioned Sarkozy or the influence of France- why? Because I do not see their relevance in this at all. France is struggling. Forget the posturing and the grandstanding from Paris, they have no say in this. Small ‘Netherlands’ as an ‘AAA rated economy’ commands far bigger recognition and respect. Monsieur Sarkozy has an election to fight and intiutively had to make Ms Merkel happy at all cost even though his chances for re-election are quite slim to say the least. The ‘PIIGS’ are being tortured and the manner in which the Greek drama is unfolding is an absurdity. Greece is bankrupt, it cannot pay its debt- YES the country is culpable and should shoulder her responsibilities but the way it is being villified and bullied is abysmally insane. Brings me back to the beginning, the talk of Franco-German solidarity seems to locally confined to a selected few- OR else why on earth would they make obscene demands in return for helping a ‘brother out’?

    Reply
    • John Conniffe 16/02/12 #
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      One of the few sensible comments made on this site. we could do with far more comments like this and far less less of those that throw round words like “traitor” and “Nazi”. It’s nice to see that not everyone out there is gleefully sharpening their pitchforks. Thanks.

    • Holemaster 16/02/12 #
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      Strange use of word caucuses.

  • Ollie McDonnell 16/02/12 #
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    The sooner Greece goes to the wall and everyone here and in europe gets a reality check the better for everyone.. Thats what I think..

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  • Dermot Murphy 20/02/12 #
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    Do what Iceland did,and give them all the fingers.Iceland soon bounced back.

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