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LAST YEAR, NOVEMBER was the crucial month for Ireland with the arrival of the so-called Troika and the subsequent bailout package and harsh budgets.
October could prove to be an equally important four-week period in the history of the Eurozone with both G20 and European Council meetings planned.
With the markets still in turmoil, a Greek default almost an inevitability and more European banking recapitalisations on the horizon, here is a list of key dates to mark in your diary this month:
1. Sunday, October 9: French president Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel – who are starting to act more and more like the symbolic mother and father of the euro area babies (or peripheral economies) – are to meet tomorrow afternoon to prepare for an EU leaders conference later in the month.
Usually the pair agree on a united front on the main issues – such as the Greek bailout payments and banking recapitalisation – heading into important meetings with the rest of the Eurozone’s leaders.
2. Monday, October 10: After delaying an earlier vote, Malta will decide on whether to ratify the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) on Monday. The minnow country and Slovakia are the last two euro area nations to agree to the expansion of the rescue fund.Every single country in the 17-nation-strong zone must ratify the agreement, which will allow for more bond-buying, bank recapitalisation and further sovereign bailouts, if necessary.
3. Tuesday, October 12: Slovakia votes on the EFSF. Today, the Financial Times reports that the junior party in the country’s coalition is insisting on certain conditions for its support in the vote. One such condition would be an opt-out of the permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM). Prime Minister Iveta Radicova rejected this demand from the Freedom and Solidarity party.
4. Friday, October 14 and Saturday, October 15: The Group of 20 finance minister will convene in Paris for two days. A lot of pressure has already been piled on Eurozone leaders ahead of this meeting. Last month, managing director of the Christine Lagarde said governments need to “act together” and “act quickly” to get the global economy back on the path to recovery.From Washington, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told European leaders to send a “decisive signal” that they have a strategy for tackling the debt crisis
5. Monday, October 17 and Tuesday, October 18: When this meeting was planned, Eurozone leaders hoped that every country would have given the green light to the EFSF so they could discuss its implementation. This will more-than-likely happen unless something unexpected goes down in Malta and Slovakia over the next three days.
The idea of recapitalising some of Europe’s weaker banks to sure up the shaky system will also be discussed.
6. Wednesday, October 19: Greek trade unions have said that they are planning a “massive” general strike on October 19 to protest against continued austerity measures in the country. The decision to hold regular walk-outs has come on the back of new property taxes and the suspension of a further 30,000 public sector workers.The last strike, on Wednesday, turned violent in parts of Athens.
7. Thursday, October 20: The European Central Bank’s Governing Council will meet in Brussels. It will be Jean-Claude Trichet’s last meeting before handing the reigns over the Italian central Banker Mario Draghi.
8. Friday, October 21: D-DAY for Greece as about €2 billion in its treasury bills mature. We will (should?) know by then if the EFSF has been ratified and whether there will be a default – orderly or not.
9. Tuesday, November 1: Draghi, or Super Mario as he is known in Italy, takes over from Jean-Claude Trichet at the ECB. Earlier this week, Trichet said there had never been “calm waters” in the euro area in his time in office. Will Draghi’s term be the same?
Some analysts believe that he will be more proactive than Trichet in getting to grips with the debt crisis and sluggish economic growth across Europe.
His first policy decision will be made at a Governing Council meeting on November 3. Rumours are already circulating that there may be a cut in interest rates – something that Irish mortgage holders would welcome.
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My 10c is that none of the terribly important dates will make a blind bit of difference except maybe one. Just look at this Eurozone circus. Merkel and Sarokzy will meet to discuss what they’re gonna say at some conference, which as we know already will be no more than a photo-shooting opportunity. They will agree something and then say something else at the conference. And so will 15 others heads of Eurozone states. Yawn. Next, two Mickey-Mouse countries will be ratifying a bail-out fund which is already six months behind the curve and requires a bail-out itself. It’d be interested to see what would happen if say Malta decide not to play ball. No money for Greece? I doubt. It would be more like Niece / Lisbon treaty scenario – you got the wrong answer, vote again or you’ll be seated at the naughty bench. Then the ministers will meet in Paris for some foie gras and a nice glass of Bordeaux. A proclamation will come out with ‘a decisive signal’ as suggested by Mr. Geithner that something should be done. The French will mind their banks, the German will play to their home team and the rest are bystanders anyway. Then they will meet again in two days to discuss ‘implementation of EFSF’. Sorry lads but at this stage EFSF is already pretty irrelevant so I don’t see what you’re going to discuss. This is only going to be interesting if Slovakia or Malta throw the spanner into works. What happens next – ah yes, a strike in Greece. Massively important. Moving swiftly on to the ECB Governing Council Meeting – probably the only important event among those listed above. Bye-bye Trichet and hello Draghi. Prepare to witness the Euro going the way of Italian Lira. Expect to see E100000 notes in six months time and then zeros will be gradually knocked off by autumn 2012. Then the dramatic D-day for Greece – E2b maturing. As if there is some chance of Europeans letting the Euro to the wall for E2b. And then Mr. Draghi takes over for real. Interest cut someone? Dollar bulls are already excited……
And Christine Lagarde wants governments to ” act quickly and together.”…….!!!!!!!!!!!! The whole thing is turning into a farce……….like groundhog day the same scenario repeated over and over…..no wonder the EU is in the state its in …….the couldnt organise a piss up in a brewery.!
With any bit if luck they will all grow a pair and make a decision that helps the rest of us…! Specially Mario in November……
In the midst of all the high end discussion on bank debt, the extraordinary levels of youth unemployment across the EU, not just the euro zone, are not attracting a great deal of attention. And if the young can’t get work, they can’t pay tax, drive consumption, etc.
The headline says 9 key dates. The story lists 2. Where are the rest?
Slovakia voted down the EFSF expansion. Let’s see what happens next. Another Sarko-Merkel meeting and perhaps a trip to Slovakia to tell them not to piss about.
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