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Dublin: 16 °C Tuesday 21 May, 2013

There is ‘no silver bullet’ to address mortgage arrears, says financial regulator

Matthew Elderfield says Ireland’s mortgage arrears problem is going to get worse before it gets better.

Image: jakeliefer via Creative Commons

FINANCIAL REGULATOR Matthew Elderfield has said that Ireland’s mortgage arrears problem remains one of the biggest challenges of the financial crisis but that there are no ‘silver bullets’ to tackle the issue.

Speaking to Harvard Business School today, Elderfield said that the latest mortgage arrears data “is a source of concern”, but that Irish banks have a “substantial capital buffer with which to absorb losses on their mortgage portfolios”.

“The Central Bank believes it is time to do just that,” he added.

In mid-February, data released by the Central Bank showed that the average Irish mortgage is €1,453 in arrears (ie three months or more behind on mortgage repayments).

He added that the bank expects the number of mortgages in arrears to continue rising through the coming year because “it will likely take some time before the stock of arrears cases in the sustainable category are resolved through loan modification, bankruptcy, or non-judicial settlement mechanisms”:

This is not a problem susceptible to quick fixes or silver bullets but is going to take more time before the exact scale of the problem becomes clearer and certainly many years before it is resolved.

The regulator noted that although arrears cases are increasing, the “vast majority of customers are still meeting their mortgage obligations” despite many of them being in negative equity.

However, being in negative equity does not equate with being in mortgage arrears and the Central Bank is planning to make it easier for people who can afford to move but are in negative equity to do so.

“Frankly the Irish taxpayer does not have the financial resources to somehow eliminate or reduce negative equity in the mortgage market, either directly or through the banking system, but it does not need to do so in order to tackle arrears,” he said. “Negative equity will I fear remain an unpleasant reality for many borrowers for years to come, but it is encouraging that in the vast majority of cases where customers can still afford to pay their mortgage that they are doing so.”

He said that negative equity mortgages could help people who could afford to move, but are in negative equity, to do so but warned that they post consumer protection issues because the move could involve the homeowner switching to a larger home and taking on more debt.

Two lenders approached the bank in 2010 about launching these kinds of mortgages, and the bank has now decided to set out general criteria – but not “prescriptive standards” – to make the provision of negative equity mortgages easier.

Elderfield also said it was important to have a better understanding of new bankruptcy legislation because although it “is not likely to come in force for a little while yet, having clarity on the policy framework for bankruptcy and debt settlement is extremely important and very welcome”.

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Comments (24 Comments)

  • €1453 is = to 3 months mortgage arrears here’s to dreaming.

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  • NAMA are using silver bullets all the time & as a bonus they give you a job.

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  • So we just keep kicking the can down the road then …………………………?

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  • mike 02/03/12 #

    But there was a Silver Bullet to take on Private Bank Debt. In Iceland there was no silver Bullet for Banks And they have returned to the international money markets.

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  • “Frankly the irish taxpayer does not have the finanical resoures”wish he’d tell Kenny and co,because they think the taxpayer can be endlessly milked.

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  • i’ve been told that it’ll take a bullet made of unobtanium to sort the problem

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  • There is a huge amount that could be done if the banks had the will to do it but they are just interested in getting their capital back. The could split mortgages 50% interest only or a relative amount interest only, extend the terms for people reducing there monthly repayments. The other option which I cannot understand is that why no one has came up with proposing a “reverse mortgage” which we had here a few years ago.

    This would work on the basis of say you had a mortgage of €350K and it was shown that you could sustain for example 50% of this. €175K would now become your mortgage and the other €175K becomes whats known as a reverse mortgage. A reverse mortgage basically is secured against your property and interest in accrued on it but you make no payment on it until your death or if you have the money to clear the outstanding balance. The State could sell a whole of life assurance policy to people and on death it pays out so they are getting money in helping the exchequer now and providing security in the future so loved ones dont have to worry about the mortgage on your death. It would not be debt forgiveness either as the money will still be owed but it allows people breathing space and also the banks will get there money back (eventually).

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  • Great idea Mr Elderfield.

    Allow banks to take Joe Public’s money to generously bail themselves out.

    Then allow banks to give Joe Public 1-2% interest on his last few quid in their stingey deposit accounts.

    Then allow these very same banks to fund their golden circle friends (to the hilt), with negative equity mortgages so that they can buy unfortunate Joe Public’s repossessed homes and build up their property portfolios on the cheap.
    (Capitalizing on other people’s misfortune)

    Why?

    Because you keep proclaiming that Joe Public can’t handle money or credit?

    The banks,our government and our regulator failed to do what any average housewife does successfully each and every week and that is balance the books.

    Remember 90% of the damage was done at the top end of lending.

    More than €70 Billion was loaned out to a handful of NAMA’s €200k a year Goldenboy pets.

    Yet our leaders, protectors and our media continue to try to blame this mess on Joe Public overspending on his storecard
    or
    Joe Public buying an overpriced (government inspected and approved) fire hazard shoebox flat to live in.

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  • doesn’t he mean a “magic bullet” – silver bullets are for killing werewolves, another figment of human imagination, like equal rights and democracy.

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  • I wonder if anyone in attendance asked what the financial regulator did to help prevent this situation in the first place.

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  • Hello……, hello Mr Elderfield..
    We all know there is no Silver bullet to solve the negative equity situation, for people are just going to have to live with that for some time. Negative equity is not a problem unless someone needs to sell or move, but the chances of someone moving to buy a bigger place or whatever is few and far between especially if they require finance, because you just can’t get finance when there is no banking system in place.

    With regard to the mortgage arrears, people just need some breathing space to allow them find there feet again. The only way and the simpliest way of doing this is to allow people go on an interest only basis, or better yet extend the term of the mortgage to 100 years or 199 years (it doesn’t matter). This will allow people to get control on their finances, allow those in arrears to catch up and also will give people a little bit of disposable income to spend a little extra to help our local economy.

    Before you scream at me that this is pushing the mortgage debt onto the next generation. Well there are some simple steps that can counteract this, 1) Make it compulsory to effect a Mortgage Protection Assurance (Yes this is a requirement when you are drawing your mortgage down) 2) Make it compulsory to maintain a Mortgage Protection policy throughout the life of the mortgage (while this is not advisable, currently it is not compulsory to keep the MPA after the mortgage is drawn down). Thereby ensuring the mortgage is cleared on the death of the borrower.

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    • Negative equity is a huge psychological problem for the economy. When people are in negative equity they feel poorer even if their actual disposable income has not changed.

      The knock on effect from there is significant/

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    • Negative equity is a huge psychological problem for the economy. When people are in negative equity they feel poorer even if their actual disposable income has not changed.

      The knock on effect from there is significant.

      Reply
  • Over-inflated property is the reason that Ireland has lost international competitiveness

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  • Don’t pay bond holders pay off all owner occupied mortgage put money back in people’s pockets to spend in shops and it’s a win win ( except for bond holders )

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  • O Mathew

    Would thou care to search in Google for ‘KPMG PWC ASAI Judge Paul McDonnell’ and do the right thing for the widows and orphans in Ireland?

    Le Enfant Terrible

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  • Remember Seventy Billion Euro is equal to Four Hundred And Sixty Six Thousand Six Hundred And Sixty Six Average Joe Public €150,000 mortgages.

    €70,000,000,000 divided by €150,000 = 466,666 (mortgages)

    Of course that’s allowing that €150k mortgage is average.

    Really €100k mortgage should have been more than enough for an average mortgage (not purchase price) based on the real Irish economy figures at the time.

    So lets say

    €70,000,000,000 divided by €100k = 700,000 mortgages

    700,000 mortgages and there are approximately 800,000 mortgages in Ireland .

    http://www.oireachtas.ie/parliament/media/housesoftheoireachtas/libraryresearch/spotlights/Debt_Part_1_Mortgages.pdf

    Below a paragraph from page 3.

    However, the most recent and most
    accurate figures available are those
    published by the Financial Regulator.
    They show that at end of the third
    quarter 2009, there were 792,893
    private residential mortgage accounts
    with a book value of €118.3Bn. The
    large discrepancy (approximately
    148,000) between the estimate based
    on the Census and those from the
    Financial Regulator may in part be
    explained as the Financial Regulator
    figure includes top-up mortgages and
    may include second mortgages taken
    on primary private residences. It is also
    possible that some of these were taken
    out to support buy-to-let investments.

    €70 billion is equal to 700,000 average mortgages (based on European standards).

    And the Irish banks lent €70 billion plus to two hundred or so ”Builders”

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