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Dublin: 15 °C Tuesday 18 June, 2013

The world’s best-performing asset in the last year… Irish government bonds

Anyone who bought Irish bonds second-hand 12 months ago must be feeling pretty smug by now…

Image: Richard Drew/AP

THE BEST PERFORMER in the world over the past year: Irish government bonds, returning 19.0 per cent.

The icing on the cake? The best performer in the entire world over the last six months is… Irish equities, returning 15.3 per cent.

It’s a double feature. Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s global equity strategists led by Michael Hartnett attribute this to the effects of “The 3R’s: Restructuring, Recapitalisation, and Regime change”.

In a note to clients, they write:

The Irish Restructured debt, Recapitalised banks and voted for Regime change (austerity). Indebted countries that fail to implement fiscal contraction will see markets do job for them. Only way to get ahead of severe debt dynamics is “Big Bang”.

Without common sense fiscal policy that allows periphery to refinance debt at reasonable terms, European equities should not be owned, in our opinion.

Markets simply want: global policy coordination; a clear exit plan for Greece; firepower to support peripheral bonds in exchange for credible austerity.

We know what they want; we’ll see what they get here pretty soon.

- Matthew Boesler

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Comments (29 Comments)

  • Could someone from a financial background please explain who might have purchased these Irish Government bonds? If it is Irish banks, is it like owing money to ourselves? However, if it is predominantly fund managers/foreign governments/speculators; this will be a bitter pill to swallow.

    Reply
    • Norway’s sovereign wealth fund had a bunch of Irish bonds. Lots of private prospectors in Germany & Switzerland had lots too.

      Reply
    • I’m not from a financial background; however…

      It is likely that these bonds were bought on the open market at way below issue value. The markets view of us is constantly improving (pretty much – the price downturn in the last few weeks are not really a reflection on us) so anyone who bought bonds a while ago would have made a profit if they sold them on – but not off us.

      They are also paying a very good interest rate on the price. Interest rate is paid calculated on the issue price. Say I sell a bond at €100 paying 5% (€5 per year). If market sentiment were to improve dramatically people would be willing to pay more for the bond, say €200. That bond is now paying 2.5%. If people were only willing to pay €50 for the bond it would now be paying 10%.

      At the end of the day, it makes no difference to us as we have committed to pay the €5 every year until the bond matures.

      If anyone took a loss, it was person who bought them when they were issued.

      If Irish banks bought some on the market, this is a double-good thing as it means that Irish banks are making a healthy profit somewhere, thus meaning they are less likely to need further assistance from the State.

      As regards this being a bitter pill, actually it is a very sweet pill because it means that people are buying our bonds on the open market – reducing the interest rate that people demand to hold them. This makes it more likely that we will be able to return to the market to sell our debt in 2013 (which is still fairly unlikely, at the moment – imo).

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    • Ned, If some reportage is to be beleived one of the biggest investors in Irish Government Bonds over the last 12 months has been the Irish Banks. Basically they got cheap (1%) money from the ECB as part of the ECB’s flooding of the market with cheap money and have used this money to primarily buy up Irish Government Bonds. This has had the effect of driving the yield which is a measure of the interest rate payable on the face value of the bond (which does not change) as a percentage of the price of the bonds down. For example government had a bond issued in 2007 for say €100 with a 4% interest rate which means that €4 interest is paid every year on that bond. These bonds are traded all of the time on the markets at prices usually less than €100. So for example if this bond is traded for €40 then it still pays €4 interest so it is said to have a yeild of 10% i.e. €4 divided by €40. What the banks have done is buy loads of these bonds at rock bottom prices like in this example, the price of the bonds on the market has gone up to €60 because of demand. They still only pay €4 interest so the yeild is now 6.66% i.e. €4 divided by €60. The bank now has a choice, sell the bond into the current market and make €20 (a 50% profit on cost) or hold the bond to maturity when they assuming there is no bond holder burning they will get repaid €100 for something that they only paid €40 for plus they will have earned €4 per annum for the whole time they held the bond. The huge bank losses over the last few years have in part arisen due to the initial collapse in the value of the bonds of the likes of us and other countries but they are now being put in a position to earn it all back by this money flow from the ECB.

      Reply
  • Sound man Enda, your place on the lecture circuit is assured.

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  • Fagan's 25/05/12 #

    It would be interesting to see the turn over on Anglo Irish Bonds. Many of the original holders dumped them at 20p in the pound, sold to hedge funds taking a gamble. Little did they realize that Brian Lenihan was going to honour these failed investments in full in order to protect his parties friends and donors.

    Reply
  • So we make the rich richer, nice.

    Reply
  • Since 2008 the banks have refused to take their medicine. They’ll be taking it soon.

    Reply
  • You would imagine that the Irish would have learned from history.

    It’s not a good thing to lose control of your destiny. The ones in the driving seat are making plenty of money from this crisis. Many of them are the same people and institutions who created the problem in the first place.

    Reply
  • I for one await the passing on of these huge interest returns to the normal Irish person. I somehow get the feeling I might be dead long before that ever happens though. Good to see people making money of other’s misery though, capitalism is great :)

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  • Ugh. How do some people not get how this is good news? Thumbs up given to Irish bonds and equities – more people want to invest – price goes down. Bish bash boom: the market works.

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  • Looks like we live in market economies now where money is the prime commodity; traded back and forth by virtue of the value accrued on the basis of doomed fiscal policies like stagnation and social breakdown. The true value of currencies based upon the confidence and will of a nation does not exist.
    Perhaps some statistics based upon the numbers and qualifications of people leaving this country daily might lend a more realistic interpretation upon the likelihood of this country recovering in a real and sustainable way rather than the ‘three R’s’ which to my mind mean: 1 Restructuring = sale of state assets. 2 Recapitalisation = Supporting banks at the cost of the real economy. 3 Regime change = FG/Labour coalition aka continuity Fianna Fail! Gaia help us!!

    Reply
  • Is there any more evidence needed that this is all a huge scam. We need a complete revolution – governance, monetary system, banking system, the current crop of political and economic terrorists that destroy lives for money etc…all need to go. Wipe them out and start all over again

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    • Isn’t that what the men and women of 1916 were trying to do? A new start that’s what’s needed! 1916 Easter Rising Centenary Commemorative Coins in gold, silver and bronze finishes from 1916uprising.ie Well?

      Reply
  • sickening insult to the injury of the Irish people.. Stop the Madness.

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  • we all know this is to fool people into voting yes. none of this no matter what the goverment say is going to stop the pain were going to feel. VOTE NO dont let then think they are fooling anyone.

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    • Am what? So are you implying that this story is fabricated or that for the last year the global market has been conspiring to ensure a YES vote in the referendum?. Delusion of the highest order. This is clearly good news.

      Reply
  • Voted for austerity????!…..don’t think so!

    Reply

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