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Dublin: 2 °C Saturday 25 May, 2013

The single image that explains what happens if we leave the euro

This image from Boston Consulting Group provides a handy guide to the practical impact of leaving the common currency.

THERE SEEMS TO be no end in sight to the debt crisis in Europe – which, despite frantic political deals and constant intervention by the European Central Bank, seems to be as pressing as ever.

With continued fears over the long-term stability of the euro – and with the constant questions about the prospect of having to leave it – this graphic from the Boston Consulting Group could be worth taking a look at.

It explains how leaving the euro would impact on both the exiting country and the rest of the eurozone, with regard to economic indicators like exports, employment, savings, asset returns and inflation.

The graphic is part of a full report called ‘What Next? Where Next?’ which can be read for free on registration at BCG’s website.

Click the image – or here, if you’re a mobile user – to load the full high-resolution version.

Referendum will effectively decide whether Ireland wants to keep the euro – Noonan

Explainer: Why would Ireland stick with the euro?

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Comments (72 Comments)

  • Dave 19/12/11 #

    So it’s basically bad, then good. As opposed to bad, them more bad.

    Seems like a straightforward choice.

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  • Seems like a no brainer then, doesn’t it??

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  • mart_n 19/12/11 #

    I don’t know what to make of that graphic. It’s all a bit ‘Chuckle Brothers’ without the raw data or methodology being shown.. Also, did any particular group commission this consultation?

    It’s all too easy to get behind an idea when you don’t know whose idea it is.

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  • Morgan Kelly told you all this over a year ago.

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  • Leaving the Euro doesn’t seem so bad according to this

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  • Like most here I am no economist but short term pain for a good future for our kids, grand kids and the country…. Seems a no brainer

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  • The Punt was a commodity in itself before we diluted into the euro and a phoenix like rebirth would be welcome.

    Maybe put the phoenix bird on the new Punt :D

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    • Sean C 20/12/11 #

      If the Punt returns the paper it’s printed on would be worth more than the Punt its self, there is no panacea, you either carry the debt burden, or you dump it by leaving the Euro and it’s tranferred into a massive decrease in standard of living. Breeding Donkey’s would then be the business to be in then as we’re all back to Donkey Carts.

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    • A new punt must be backed by something like gold or silver. Fiat currency is what got us here in the first place.

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  • run while nobody is looking. ..

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  • Let’s leave. Quick

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  • Nice backup to my comments on your Osborne article. Cheers, it great to see the truth in print.

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  • The rumour about the mint printing punts,,,,,,

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  • If this consulting group are right and government maintain they are working hard for us the people why are n’t they paving the way for us to leave the euro.Although that it is an American consulting firm would cause me to think carefully about jumping ship.Just my little rant on the article.

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    • Glad to see someone else actually had a think about the source and their agenda!

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    • Sean C 20/12/11 #

      The devil is in the detail, is their definition of long term years or decades, are we talking about things improving for our children or for our great grandchildren ?

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    • We’ll most likely, if everything goes belly up, there’ll be a massive re-distribution of wealth, everyone has something to loose, some have massive amounts to loose. Those people who don’t want to loose massive amounts of money are pulling the strings.
      Who’s gonna pay back all that non-existent money if we do our own thing.

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  • I’m a mobile user and I could see it fine!!

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  • Should have done this just after Iceland did. We be on the rise by now.

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  • EM 20/12/11 #

    It’s a nice graphic from an American business I never heard of. That’s all.
    Where are the real leaders here or in Europe that can tell us the truth?

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  • We can make the euro work if we bring the people who caused the recession to justice, in the same way that the pedifile priests need to be brought to justice. It mystifies me how these men can get away with their crimes just before of the laws THEY made.

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  • lots of arrows,could be from the Mickey Mouse institute of economics.people seem to be making up their minds on whether we should stay in the euro or not based on this graphic. we have voted for Europe several times now we are changing our minds, do we ever really think about the long term plan.maybe its time we did!!!

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  • No brainer

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  • What happens the value of our Euro mortgages if we leave the Euro?

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    • I imagine it would depend on the ability of the Punt to trade and might just be a boost to the variable rate mortgages.

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    • The fundamental ideas of the Euro benefits us all, the main reason it hasn’t worked is because of the crazy decisions that the leaders of each country has made. Every government needs to change, politics needs to become more about the people and less about the “golden circle”. Each country needs to be able to make their own decisions but under strict financial laws.

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    • Voice of Reason.

      The reason that the Euro has not worked is because it it a one cap fits all. Interest rates were kept artificially low over the last decade to suit Germany and France, while being wildly unsuitable for many other countries.

      The fixed Euro rate benefits Germany, Holland and Finland by making their goods cheaper than if they had their own currency, while many of the others. Italy for example are 30% over valued. Italy a country with massive savings, a low deficit, good potential cannot grow while it is in the Euro. If it was not in the Euro, there would be no problem.

      The people running it are part of the problem but the problem is the Euro itself. The next crisis is only a matter of time while it exists.

      Pare it back to 7-8 countries, the rest leave. Plan for that and resolve the crisis long term.

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    • The main reasons the Euro didn’t work in Italy is because when they changed currency the price of everything (except peoples wages) doubled, the switch over wasn’t properly monitored and almost automatically made a lot of people who already had wealth richer. If you think our politicians are bad (which they are), you should take a closer look at the theirs. The mafia or gomorrah still more or less run that country. Money has been given to areas to build schools, hospitals, incinerators etc, and building stops half way because the money runs out and when the authorities are asked what happened the money nobody knows.
      Do you remember the streets full of rubbish in Naples? That was because every region got money to build an incinerator but in Naples region, Campania, the money kept goin missing. Other regions toke their rubbish for a while but got fed up and stopped because millions were going missing and they told them to sort the problem out. A doctor in Naples was shot a few years ago when he told the news about money going missing from the hospital. They don’t get any social welfare in Italy either. I know for fact that berlucconi bribed a lot of ordinary people to vote for him in the last election. He gave his people money to go around to the families they know and give them €100 each to vote for him and they thought “sure all the politicians are as bad as each other so at least my family will get €100 if I vote for this guy”.

      “Gommorrah” is supposed to be a good film and book, it’s a personal account from a guy that worked for the gommorrah, I haven’t seen it yet thought.
      €1,000 euro a month in Italy would be a good wage

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  • Its a graph with arrows that cant even decide wheter to point up or down, or if red up is good, or is amber south south east good? Totally ambiguous.

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    • There’s a key to the meaning of the arrow colours on the chart if you’d bother looking properly before commenting. The colours denote magnitude, not positivity or negativity.

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  • Lads.

    If you think the Punt can be refloated your insane.

    The only logical option available to Ireland if the euro fails is to adopt Sterling.

    So all lets pray together.

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    • There has always and will always be a market for the Punt, that strength that was there before can be there again, export is strong and will always remain so and we still have strong tourism trade.

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    • If we stay in the Euro Zone, we and about 7 other countries will suffer long term generational decline. While the Irish will tolerate that, most of the other countries will not.

      We are avoiding a short term hit but assuring a larger fall, a longer fall.

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    • Gerard if my meemory is correct the main market was for the punt to be almost constatnly under attack by currency speculators one of the reasons we joined the euro was to try and avoid this we are always going to be affected by other currencies the country is to small economically

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  • I get it …

    The only reason we are staying in the euro is to protect the public sector.

    Great way to spend my children’s future …

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    • I was wondering when it would be the fault of the public sector. and for the record I’m not in the public sector just depend on them spending their wages to keep my job

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    • Sure it is always the fault of the public sector ‘s ….. Grow up ! You private sector workers are so high and mighty . Jealous that the p s workers still have jobs when you all out priced yourselves during the celtic tiger !!!

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    • Eileen what a load of horse sh1te, Under berties leadership, FF, in order to justify their claims that they were providing jobs jobs jobs, CREATED jobs within the public sector as there was enough surplus cash to enable them to do so, thus backing up their claim that they alone have taken 100,000 people of the live register,
      now, in the times that we find ourselves, a lot of these jobs are protected by the Croke Park agreement even tho there is no productivity in certain sectors,
      for Christ sake, its not jealousy its common sense and im not talking about teachers or nurses or anyone on the front line im talking about back room staff and the such,

      and as for your comment ”your all jealous coz the PS workers still have jobs when you all priced yourselves out of it during the Celtic tiger” ….what an ignorant ill informed, naive to the point of ridiculous , silly thing to say!!
      and i can say this as i am lucky now to be in employment after 2 years of struggling on the dole, im a home owner like so many that was told by my seemingly betters ”buy now coz if ye don’t you’l be left behind!!

      get a grip Eileen and stop spoutin tripe!!

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    • Ger Byrne
      I was a frontline worker and I was classed as public sector , and I am sick of people saying ”The only reason we are staying in the euro is to protect the public sector.” Well it was ok for this public sector worker to protect the public when I was able . I am well grown up and I know what is what . I have a mortgage too , I have kids in school and saw my older ones through college and all with out the help of grants or anything else. I earned my money. I had no choice but to work when I was required to, and at Easter , Christmas , New Years, Bank holidays ,nights, days, weekends birthdays, anniversaries, school plays, Christmas mornings , and even 24 hr shifts . I have earned my right to stand up and say that I am sick of people in the private sector blaming every thing on the public sector. By the way I never worked in back rooms. Nor have I ever or will ever support FFail ures . If you want to blame some one blame them and their Golden circle of the Galway Tent Brigade , the bankers who loaned when they had no right to … We are all on the same sinking ship .
      Have a Happy and safe Christmas.

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    • By the way I believe that we should leave the Euro behind us . Become self reliant .

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    • eileen whats your point? do you accept that there are jobs protected by the croke park agreement that can be axed without interfeering, with the day to day workings of the front line, of which you were so long a part of?
      and i dont want to portray that i am in favour of widespread job losses, its a nettle that needs to be grabbed,

      and as regards leaving the euro, im genuinely scared of what the future holds either way, i point blankly do not trust what anyone in a position of power is saying to me, because in my mind what is happening right now is a shift in big buisness, nothing more, and whatever happens will be hugely influenced by the puppet master timothy Geitner, germany and france. so if i was given a choice to look after myself or be looked after by an indifferent big brother……… il say give me back the keys to my house and to hell with the euro.

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    • Look Ger I am just as terrified too, I do not trust Merkle ,sarkozy, geitner, Kenny , gilmore . We voted these last two guys in , for what we thought would be the best and I feel they are the puppets of the franco/ german puppet masters. I reckon we will be better off going it alone . Align ourselves to Britain, and carry on from there.

      As for getting rid of jobs in the public sector , that will happen anyway, with natural wastage, no recruitment, the croke park agreement was the death knell of public sector unions and possibly all unions in this country. We have not reached rock bottom yet , and when we do I do not want to be supporting Germany France or europe while smothering under their weight.

      Get rid of the Euro is what I say too, and try to save as many jobs as possible private and public.

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  • back to the punt and gain our independance again away from the Nazis !

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  • Eh, could this be a little bit of propaganda. Just saying like!

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  • This charts shows that struggling now will pay off in the longrun. BCG hasn’t changed my mind. Freedom from Euro bondage is looking really good!

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    • Sean C 20/12/11 #

      I think a big burning our bridges decision like that needs being a little more informed than a can be delivered by a single powerpoint slide.

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    • very true, but it seems like they didn’t even have that when they decided to guarantee the banks :-D
      …or did they agree because they didn’t want to be tarred as the government that brought down the Euro.
      probably the later.

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  • i wonder what the puppet master timmothy geitner thinks of that ambigous table at the top?
    i doubt he would be pleased,

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  • Short term gain for larger gain…

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  • No image Gavin ?

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  • What will happen the public sector?

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