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Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari

Where are oil prices headed? This Saudi minister says 'only Allah knows'

The commodity’s price has been bouncing all over the place.

THOSE WHO BELIEVE the OPEC cartel pulls the strings on global oil prices are wrong – they should apparently be looking to a higher power to make sense of the cost fluctuations.

Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Ali Al-Naimi, whose country is one of the world’s three biggest producers, today told CNBC that the price of oil couldn’t be controlled and was “up to Allah” when he was asked about where the volatile market was headed.

It comes as major oil producers continue to face pressure to push up their prices and make their operations more profitable in the face of lower global demand and a boom in production.

So far the OPEC consortium has kept up its output as it goes head-to-head with US oil producers riding the wave of the fracking boom. There is also the prospect of Iranian oil being added to the global glut if sanctions are lifted under a nuclear deal.

Al-Naimi said worldwide supply and demand was the only thing that would set oil prices in the long term.

I am not worried about Iranian crude, nor will I try to predict what the price is – if I were to predict, I would be somewhere else, gambling,” he said.

AP Photo / Nabil al-Jurani, File AP Photo / Nabil al-Jurani, File / Nabil al-Jurani, File

Up and down

Saudi Arabia is the biggest and most powerful oil exporter among the OPEC consortium, but its finances have been bleeding into the red with falling prices.

Oil rents – the difference between the value of Saudi oil production on world markets and the cost of production - have in recent years made up about half of the country’s total economy.

Meanwhile, the price of oil hit six-year lows earlier this year, but the price of Brent crude has since bounced back above $67 per barrel after sitting at close to $50 per barrel in January and February.

Oil Nasdaq Nasdaq

The rebound has been driven by a recent fall in supply, with US oil rigs being taken offline because of the low prices and political instability in producers like Libya putting the brakes on output.

Irish fuel suppliers have been quick to respond to the changes in price, hiking the average cost of unleaded to €1.39 per litre in April – up from a low of €1.28 in February – according to figures from the AA.

Petrol AA AA

READ: 5 charts that show why the ‘lost decade’ is a long way from over >

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20 Comments
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    Mute artur filip
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    May 5th 2015, 5:09 PM

    Seems like Allah doesn’t like Ireland already with current prices

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    Mute Hermes
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    May 5th 2015, 5:13 PM

    Prices have come down in Galway since the Mosque opened – The brotherhood are cool with me !

    76
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    Mute Joe Traynor
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    May 5th 2015, 5:08 PM

    Price at pump always slow to fall but quick to rise.

    154
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    Mute Hermes
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    May 5th 2015, 5:14 PM

    Michael Noonan makes the most from Oil in the country – Fact !

    81
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    Mute Eugene Walsh
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    May 5th 2015, 5:20 PM

    Number of yrs ago price of a barrel was toward 200$. It now is a quarter/third of that and the cost of litre at the pump is non relative to any of that.

    71
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    Mute Hermes
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    May 5th 2015, 5:27 PM

    Econometrics – probably decided in Germany by actuaries …
    When it was favourable for large mortgages to be written petrol and diesel were below a Euro in Ireland – once the vast majority were netted the oil was free to rise again – the cost per barrel has nothing to do with it …

    6
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    Mute Suzie Sunsine
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    May 5th 2015, 5:41 PM

    There’s a bloke i knew once that was like that too !

    6
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    Mute Caomhan Mc Menamin
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    May 9th 2015, 2:13 PM

    What in Christ had that got to do with econometrics?

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    Mute Bleedin Rapid
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    May 5th 2015, 5:07 PM

    Sky high up towards the 72 promised virgins then?

    27
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    Mute Jay Warner
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    May 5th 2015, 7:22 PM

    And yet the price of petrol is still rising in Ireland. Sick of being ripped off at every opportunity buy the government, banks and petrol companies.

    24
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    Mute Joseph O'Regan
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    May 5th 2015, 6:27 PM

    I was talking to the fairies at the end of the Garden and they told me that the price will Drop to $60 before the end of the month.

    23
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    Mute Hermes
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    May 5th 2015, 5:13 PM

    It’s official Allah rules the world !
    I’m joining those guys – backing a winner so I am !
    Now which crowd do I join …
    Isis,
    Jordan,
    Palestine (Jesus was from there )
    Israel (Moses wasn’t from there – he was from Egypt )
    America (most aggressive power broker in the area )
    Saudis (like the horses )
    Or the African ones …

    Decisions, decisions – it’s like picking a Christian Church when you think about it !

    17
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    Mute Glen
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    May 5th 2015, 6:04 PM

    You have two choices.
    Sunni or Shite.

    15
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    Mute Hermes
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    May 5th 2015, 9:49 PM

    Only a fool would choose shite over sunny …..
    What is the Capital of Sunny ?, I want to book a flight -
    Or is it all Sunny out there on one side of the Nile and Shite on the other ?

    4
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    Mute iBob101
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    May 5th 2015, 8:59 PM

    I bet Jesus knows too.

    10
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    Mute Gerry Campbell
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    May 5th 2015, 5:12 PM

    Allah up!!!!

    9
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    Mute Ray Farrelly
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    May 5th 2015, 11:24 PM

    Oiled be dammed

    5
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    Mute Robbie Reid
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    May 5th 2015, 6:51 PM

    Peaks and Troughs. They’ll be back up again in another year or two.

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    Mute whereisspace
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    May 6th 2015, 4:48 AM

    They really believe this hocus pocus allah stuff.

    I live in the GCC region and confronted a chap who was driving with kids bouncing around the back seats and front seats. He just simply said if they die in a car crash because they’re not strapped in by seat belts then it’s just god’s will… I asked what will would it be if one of them was flung out of the car, smashed through another bystander and killed them…oh thats god’s will too. Amazing stuff.

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    Mute Paul Davis
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    May 6th 2015, 11:31 AM

    I remembered when reading this (http://jrnl.ie/2085238) , comments from Colin Campbell oh about 20 years ago. I went searching on wikipedia a terrible place I know but one which every now and again manages to hold on to pieces of information.

    It states that “In 1989 Campbell claimed that there would be a shortage towards the late 1990s. In 1990 he claimed that 1998 would represent a “depletion midpoint.”[6] These early assessments were, however, according to Campbell himself, “based on public domain data, before the degree of misreporting by industry and governments was appreciated.”

    As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented.

    This movement in oil price should be watched – we have seen such a huge drop off in prices and now they are beginning to rise again , are we entering a phase of oil volatility and if so what does this mean

    1
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