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Dublin: 10 °C Wednesday 22 May, 2013

Property prices down ‘by more than suggested’ – Goodbody

A study based on the results of the Allsop distressed property auctions show home prices are down by over 60 per cent from peak.

Image: Laura Hutton/Photocall Ireland

A NEW STUDY of residential property prices has claimed that the value of the average Irish home has fallen by considerably more in the last few years than had previously been suggested.

The study, carried out by Goodbody, suggests that residential property prices are down by over 60 per cent from their peak value, and that prices are only now trading at long-term fair value.

The report is based on the prices fetched at the recent Allsop Space auctions of distressed property, which the report says gives “a better handle on current valuations” of the Irish market.

Economist Dermot O’Leary added that the Allsop auctions also dealt with properties which were still occupied, with full rental data available, meaning that prices gave a better reflection of the true market worth of each property.

The Goodbody report suggests that the average residential price is down by 68 per cent on its peak, compared to the CSO’s parallel index – compiled on the basis of successful mortgage requests – which indicates a 48 per cent drop nationwide, and a 57 per cent fall in Dublin.

Goodbody explained that the way the CSO index was compiled meant it did not include cash sales, and argued that the Allsop auctions had brought “an added transparency to the market that was badly needed”.

Although the fall in residential prices will be seen as bad news for owner-occupiers, it could mean that people looking to purchase rental properties could be see a return to value.

The report suggests that if house prices fell by 60 per cent to the end of 2013, the average annual rental price for a residence is estimated to be 7.5 per cent of the total purchase price – well up from the 5.6 per cent shown by official data for the end of last year.

The rental yield had stood at a long-term average of 8 per cent since the mid-1970s – suggesting that there may be better value in the buy-to-rent market now than there had been for some time.

Read: Minister rules out seizing NAMA properties for social housing

More: Nama to roll out vendor finance to commercial buyers in Northern Ireland

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Comments (34 Comments)

  • I was very close to buying a property in Santry during the boom. Most people thought it was a great idea to get myself on the property ladder but one friend of mine suggested that what is happening now could happen and i decided not to purchase. I am so happy i didn’t after seeing this article. i I feel sorry for all the people in negative equity but i still remember the smugness of some who were on the property ladder at the time. Common sense prevails and rules the day.

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  • Until you can get a decent sized house for about 4 times the average yearly wage prices are too high. Btw afaik the same company that owns the journal ownes daft.ie

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  • A house is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Very few properties are actually selling at the moment and an ‘asking price’ is not an indicator for what a property will eventually sell for. Until there is a publicly available register of sales like the UK then everything else is guess work.

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    • Have to agree with you there as at the moment a lot of people are living in LALA land in regards pricing of houses.

      I actually offered asking for a house in Dundalk and the owners refused to take it, the only offer and then increased the price by a further 10k, this is the type of sub normal people first time buyers also have to deal with.

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  • The “poor” during the boom are currently the new rich.

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  • 60%drop puts a lot of people in negative equity that might even be below the build cost but wages being crunched by tax and social charge and other charges mortgage write is surly the big elephant in the room now

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  • If it comes down another 30% I might be able to afford one.

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    • Depends on who you are talking to and what they think the asking price is. Most sellers will consider any bid. Worth putting in a bid 30% below current asking. If they said no, plenty of other sellers who’ll talk.

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  • The last thing we need is landlords descending on the property Market like vulchers again. It was largely they who caused the property bubble by hoovering up vast chunks of housing estates and whole blocks of apartments while ordinary families struggled to find money for a deposit to put a roof over their heads. If first time buyers have the confidence to enter the Market now, the last thing they want or need is to get into a bidding war with some landlord with a bulging property ‘portfolio’ against whom they will have no chance. Housing should be seen as a right, not some commodity to be speculated on.

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  • A study carried out by Goodbody Stock Brokers.
    (I like the way Stock Brokers was omitted from the article)

    Goodbody?
    A bit that fell of AIB?
    Encouraging novice investors and home buyers to buy up the scraps?
    Just before the government introduce their Jumbo property taxes?
    In a time where even if you were given a property for free it could cost you €5k per year alone in household charge,2nd property tax,septic tank charges,water charges,service charges maintenance,upkeep,etc,etc

    Go on
    Buy a shoe box.
    The government will declare that you are ”wealthy” and lazily screw you, with your new found millstone around your neck.
    Disgusting
    This market has a long way to fall yet.
    Let her sink.

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  • People fail to understand that the prices have come down and yes the have but the quality of the houses out there is total and utter muck.
    I have been looking for a house now since last June, at the moment I have looked at 134 houses off these houses I can say 125 are total crap.

    1.) Landlords houses – Total unkept crap, not maintained and basically require a lot of money to put right.
    2.) Houses in probate/Houses of elderly people – again rarely maintained and family trying to make a quick buck and least amount done.
    3.) New houses – if you want to leave in the arse end of nowhere fine, but most new houses have builders living in moron land and have never or wont reduce their prices, even if they are under NAMA.

    I have looked from Portlaoise right up to Dundalk and still looking.

    So yes there is plenty of houses but mainly the low life land lord scum have destroyed the market and the quality of housing.

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  • First time buyer … Loving it :)

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  • Whats a load of rubbish the allsop auction which sold awful apartments and horrible retail shops which nobody cared about got to do with the real prices of property?? …..property prices in ireland are still vastly over priced…dont listen to this media driven spin as usual…house prices need to hit rock bottom naturally. Remember one thing high property prices are what killed this country…dont listen to the goverment media vested spin who are only looking to off load loads of rubbish properrty portfolios at the end of the day and try to make a buck…they dont care about the state of the country and would gladly see another FALSE bubble of bad credit just so they can fill there back pockets with cash…DO NOT LISTEN TO THE MEDIA….go onto to property pin for real advice on what going on…House prices are still falling..DO NOT BE FORCED BY VESTED INTERESTS!

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    • Spot on Martin

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    • Anyone who thumbs this down is a landlord who got caught up in the greed and is BADLY in denial or its someone who works for the media rags who all jumped on the property greed and will do anything to lie and scrounge for his peers for vested interests. The only way this country is going to start again is to let the property markets hit NATURAL bottom. Otherwise you are just delaying the pain.

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  • Also you would have to be out of your mind for anyone thinking of buying before this REAL PROPERTY INDEX OF WHAT HOUSES ACTUALLY SOLD FOR which is out in June 2012 (after which the goverment have dont everything to try stop in coming out since 1972, look it up) every other country has this free database so you know what your neighbours house actually sold for and you dont have to listen to some lying unqualified Estate Agent who will tell every lie in the book to get his commision. House prices are falling and still have another 20% – 30% to drop…listen to the people like Morgan Kelly who tell the truth and not the media rags who have been calling the bottom since 2008. Lying scumbags.

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  • Definitely more than a 60% drop. Bought last summer on the basis that it would be in our interest even if another 20% drop happened. We spent four months negotiating on price…eventually the seller (BoI themselves) caved to our offer, about 15% below what they said it was worth even for the time and about 60% below it’s peak.

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  • And also the price of houses is still far to high, as the prices the were originally where created out of the air.

    Build price + 10 or 15%

    And another drop until the houses are 30% of the False Boom then locked at that or below and you get a realisitic market.

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    • Totally agree! If house prices are falling they’re probably achieving a more realistic level of what they are actually worth, and not the over-inflated levels they reached during the so-called ‘Celtic Tiger’ days. It’s like items offered at the SALE prices, you’re really only paying the original price.

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  • Has The Journal got something against the property in the picture?
    It’s not the first time it’s been used!

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  • I would thumbs up HISPRUIKER but it seems that ability has been blocked. Hope the connection with Daft.ie & Journal.ie has nothing to do with it.

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    • We’re not sure why you wouldn’t be able to do that – the comment is still there and visible on the site to all readers. The only reason you might not be able to give it a thumb up (or down) is if you’ve done so already.

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  • I’m buying a house at the moment moving in in 4 weeks time. House was on the market for €160000 put an offer of €119000 got accepted reluctantly. AIB value the rebuild cost at €139500 so think we are hitting the bottom folks just need people to advertise at the right price.

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  • Fair enough Gavan, It must be on my side then, i’ll take it back. :) I hope you guys can always stay as impartial as possible (unlike the sherry fitz article last week about “house prices on the rise again” one) I know it was an advertisment that might have slipped through the net, but the reason why journal.ie is getting very popular is that people can let others know there own truthful opinions & are not swayed by the media or vested interests and your not blocking & removing any comments like the “Irish Independent” has done cause it did not suit there agenda.(newspapers are becoming a thing of the past) Keep up the open forum journal.ie as its what keeps you different from the rest. ;)

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  • No worries gavan just informing.

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