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Property market continues to flag as house prices fall again

Image: Julien Behal/PA Wire

IRELAND’S PROPERTY MARKET has yet to completely bottom out, with residential house prices continuing to fall in the first three months of the year, according to the latest property analysis.

This morning’s quarterly house price report from Daft.ie shows that the average asking price for a residential property in Ireland fell by 3.1 per cent in the first quarter.

Asking prices in Dublin were down by 4.1 per cent, while prices fell 5 per cent in Galway – the highest rate of decline of any area in the country.

Prices in Cork and Waterford were down about 3 per cent on average, while prices in Limerick were down by about 2 per cent. Outside of urban areas, prices fell by an average of 2.7 per cent.

Daft.ie economist Ronan Lyons said prices had continued to drop as a result of the “ongoing mismatch between supply and demand”, and noted that on average, one third of the houses listed for sale at the start of 2010 remained unsold.

Though the quarterly drop in prices is the second-smallest decline since the decline in property prices began in early 2008, the latest fall indicates that house prices are now over 43 per cent off their peak of July 2007.

Eoin Fahy, chief economist at Kleinwort Benson Investors, said the report may indicate the onset of a “second wave of weakness”, remarking that the imminent increase of the European Central Bank’s main interest rate would see borrowers face new restrictions in the size of the mortgages they could take out.

The same hike in interest rates would also result in higher monthly repayments for existing mortgage holders – in a move that could ultimately see many more home-owners fall into arrears and eventually be forced to sell up, thus heightening the problem of oversupply.

Last week’s stress tests, aimed at identifying the potential losses of Ireland’s banks if the domestic property market continued to slide, were based on a ‘worst case scenario’ of a 33 per cent fall in house prices in the next two years.

Meanwhile a separate report by MyHome.ie found that the average asking price for a house is now €260,000 nationally – and €302,000 in Dublin.

TheJournal.ie and Daft.ie are both operated by Distilled Media.

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Comments (10 Comments)

  • Rory Mc Closkey 05/04/11 #
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    If it is a survey of the fall in the asking price then it is a best case scenario.
    Let’s not fool ourselves, we need to know what the average selling price is to get a true picture.

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  • DeclanFlynn 05/04/11 #
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    It’s a bit of positive spin to say prices have “yet to completely bottom out”. If prices are falling 3% a quarter what part of that has bottomed out? The rate of decline may be slower but as your article says we may be about to enter a second wave of weakness so we might yet have a long way to go before we bottom out.

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    • Gavan Reilly 05/04/11 #
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      Declan – all the phrase implies is that the market has yet to reach its lowest point. With respect, I don’t see how that’s a positive stab at the story.

  • Debbie McDonnell 05/04/11 #
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    Bid for a house in central Dublin in 07, relieved we didn’t get it as neighbouring house now asking almost 50% less. However, in the same area many other houses have not dropped asking price to realistic level yet – despite many of these homes being unoccupied and on the Market a long time. People view them, but without knowing actual selling prices there’s a reluctancy to buy – do you bid 10, 20, 30 or even 40% less than what seems unrealistic for 2011?

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  • John Mc Dermott 05/04/11 #
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    The ESRI in their last quarterly report suggested house prices will bottom out in 2012, and predicted it will be a trough of 50% since 2007.

    The worst case scenario suggested during the bank stress tests there last week suggested 60%, and have mentioned 2013 as the bottoming out year.

    I’d say we’re looking at the end of 2012/beginning of 2013 with all things considered remaining the same.

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  • DeclanFlynn 05/04/11 #
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    Gavan – the point is the phrase used is “yet to completely bottom out” which I take to mean you believe it has already mostly bottomed out?

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    • Gavan Reilly 05/04/11 #
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      Declan – That wasn’t an implied connotation, but given that the decline in prices has lost pace wouldn’t it be a fair one to draw anyway?

    • DeclanFlynn 05/04/11 #
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      Yes the rate of decline has fallen, but we’ve been looking at drops in the rate of decline for several reports now and we are still dropping, we could continue to drop for another 12 – 18 months as other commenter’s mention so we may not be in free fall but we might be tumbling down the side of the mountain.

  • DeclanFlynn 05/04/11 #
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    (and of course I dont mean anything personal in my comment, just disagree with the opinions in the article)

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  • Bob Coggins 06/04/11 #
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    The Independent (uk) had an article in October 2008 saying irish house prices could fall up to 80% from top to trough – it was as unbelievable as it was sickening.. 2.5 years into the drop they’ve not been too far wrong…

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