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Updated 10.53pm
IRELAND’S ECONOMY GREW in the second quarter of 2013 reversing three consecutive quarters of contraction and technically emerging from recession.
It was a case of good news and bad news however with GDP up and GNP down according to the Central Statistics Office (CSO).
Preliminary estimates from the CSO showed that the economy as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.4 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis compared with the first quarter of 2013.
The previous quarter had seen the economy shrink by 0.6 per cent with falls also observed in the second half of 2012.
Gross National Product (GNP), on the other hand, declined by 0.4 per cent in real terms over this period. GNP excludes the value of goods produced by multinationals in Ireland.
Spending
Personal spending saw a rise of 0.7 per cent in the second quarter of the year with Government expenditure falling by 1.3 per cent between Q1 and Q2 this year.
Follwing the publication of the figures, Finance Minister Michael Noonan welcomed in particular the CSO’s export statistics:
Today’s quarterly national accounts show the Irish economy returned to growth in the second quarter of 2013, with 0.4 per cent GDP growth recorded. The figures show exports reaching an all-time high both in terms of value and volume terms in the second quarter. Although the patent cliff is impacting production, services exports are growing strongly.
“My department will publish a revised set of forecasts in mid-October with the Budget, which will take account of today’s figures. In line with provisions of the two-pack, these forecasts, ” he added.
First published 12.31pm
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How many technical recessions have we had now since 2008?
We will enter back in to recession as soon as the budget is released in October.
@MrKnow – I think you’re being optimistic.
Arse half a percent growth is nothing wait till they clobber us again in the next budget and see another dip, this will last 10 years and we will owe close on €200billion for all our sacrifice, but this shower will have nice big jobs in Europe so they don’t give a toss, this country is just an incubator for emigration
its a bit like saying your technically pregnent
We already owe €207 billion and €7 billion of that alone is in interest
I’m technically pissed off with the government ….. Does it count ….
A bit of good news… but I’d rather see the GNP growing as that is a truer measure of what we are at.
When I get a wage increase we have exited recession
Will you let us all know when you do Lloyd?
In fairness Llyod, the Limo Driver business is tough
Are you sure now? GNP mesure whats the Irish companies’ growth… regarless of where they are based. GDP is actually better. We dont care if an irish owned company based in the US makes profit in the US. I mean its good from a patriotic point of view but you and I or the Irish gvt wont get any direct benefits from it.
Brilliant, first iam going to get a bigger TV my 60inch hd plasma is starting to show its age,then iam getting new plastic guttering sh!t to go over the nice wood finish thats already there,then some decking,and finally an apartment in Bulgaria.Yes let the good times roll.
We’re back baby! I’m switching the immersion to “BATH”!
Thats just reckless.
You have an immersion, you lucky bastxxd
We didn’t even have a bath….but we were happy though *Yorkshire accent*
Bath!! Pah, we wash in a sheet of tarpaulin in a pot hole in the middle of the road!
Ted…genius comment !!!!!!
Im no big fancy city economist, but when you measure an economy on Gross Domestic Product rather that Gross National Product then you end up with a false, bullsh*ty , view on how the economy is doing, like with foriegn multi national exports. Which have no real impact on the domestic economy.
They do say the next quarter GNP will shoot up, due to the high volume of car sales and people spending in the local economy during the fine weather in summer.
It’s very hard to get GNP growing when the government is contracting its spending. Whenever the austerity period ends you should see that stabilising or increasing again.
Unless we can grow our economy by at least 5% per year for the next 10 years, the less well off will continue to suffer more and more.
Uh huh. Are we also still technically fookered?
Great!!…off out now to book a Carribean holiday…
The sunshine in June made us turn another corner and now I can see more green shoots followed by people dancing around wearing Gilmore’s green jerseys.
Great news, makes for an easier budget !!! NOT, GNP shows the real picture, still in recession I’m afraid, be prepared for a tough Budget
In out in out. When will it really end!
When we shake it all about ;-)
Do you shake it all about ;)
and enda does the hokey kokey and resigns with the rest of em
I do :-)
What a load of crock Tell that to the parents of kids that are getting on planes and leaving ireland cos there is nothing here for them or the wife’s or husbands who are burying their partners because they could see no future here
this is hiralious, great to see some recovery but what about the um…elephant(imf/ecb loan) in the room.
I’m sure all the families struggling to put food on the table will take great comfort in that!
Recession isnt over in my house !!!
Can someone correct me:
If economic growth is lower than the rate of inflation and/or the rate of debt increase….. are we still going backwards?
And technically you are supposed to have 2 quarters of growth to exit a recession the same as you are supposed to have 2 quarters of contraction to enter recession.. Seems a lot of choosing your own stats to decide when and when not to be in or out of recession.
.
read the opening lines from this journal itemt when we last entered back into recession
http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/aaron-mckenna-entered-recession-no-bravery-1006831-Jul2013/
“A recession is two or more quarters of negative GDP growth.”
Yes. And GDP is a TERRIBLE measurement.
Actually its quite pissing me off, and maybe Ronan Duff could explain this blatant misleading of the public when it took 9 month for them to declare the recession last time. And low and behold 3 months later they are trying to deny the technical terms they stated in their last article. A bit of consistency from the Journal would be nice.
Any explanations for that Ronan ??
“A recession is two or more quarters of negative GDP growth.”
We have not had 2 quarters of negative growth… we have now had one negative and one positive.
1 positive + 1 Negative 2 negative
Recession is over lads!
Happy Days!
Seems the comments section removes “greater than” and “less than” symbols… Hmm
anyway, you’ll understand my point I hope :-)
no mine seemed to work alright. >>> <<< sure your not mashing the keyboard with your big red face. :-)
“But what we are looking at is as the great French economist Frederic Bastiat identified “that which is seen” (the new roads or the increased labour force) we are ignoring “that which is unseen” (where is the government getting this money?). The taxpayer is paying for these projects and at a premium (interest must be paid on the borrowing) and how will we pay for it? Tax increases are likely.”
Luke McGrath writing in this very journal a few days ago.
I’m technically overjoyed.
Only on paper.
Well it’s a fact, no matter how much you might not like it!
That it is a fact doesn’t make it in any way meaningful.
We have experienced a contracted period of negative to very low positive growth since 2008. We are still in that period of negative to very low positive growth. That fact isn’t changed by the occasional fall in and out of “technical recession”.
I think the technical term for it is ” dragging along the bottom”
HAHA Conor . still not getting your uneducated head round issues of the day. Blindly believing what the journal and government feed you. Technically on paper we are not out of recession. 1 quarter of growth after 3 quarters of contraction dose not qualify for that.. Dare I say
THATS NOT HOW IT WORK >> !!!!! !!! LMFAO @ u and that is a FACT
As I said take a look at what the journal reported as being techincally being in a recession reported on back in July.
.
http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/aaron-mckenna-entered-recession-no-bravery-1006831-Jul2013/
“THATS NOT HOW IT WORK >> !!!!! !!! LMFAO @ u and that is a FACT”
Did you accidently mash your hand on the keyboard there Simon?
Looks like nonsensical dribble? Reading it I imagine a big red face with veins pumping out of your forehead and neck along with some sliva coming out of the side of your mouth while you spit at your monitor.
Just Sayin
personal joke between my and conor . :-)
Simon if I am so uneducated why do I have a leaving, degree and a job while you languish online all day venting hyperbole all day on the internet?
I have a job (currently at my desk) & masters degree, only cost me $499.99, how much yours cost ya.
But honestly some of the post you dribble on here. You’d have to wonder, and its not just me check out your red thumbs every day, maybe its the way you insult people on posts , you have quite a hate fan club. You don’t half come out with some silly stuff too like your fingers are typing but your brain is just not engaged.
Simon, if you believe a red thumb equals acknowledgment that what you say is fact than you may be,more delusional than you appear.
At your desk, y you not working,
Sorry. You have a masters don’t need to work is it , bankers have them as well and look were we are to day
we know one can have a Masters in bullshit just like the one you have. do you think that makes you good or what , you could not make a comment without getting in to a row big man you are like the other simple fool and he has a masters in bullshit the too of you must have went to the same school
GNP down again further proof that the domestic economy is being killed by government policies.
Again!
Until the next set of fugures.
Out of recession based a very low growth that really is to small to matter. The Irish economy is like a slowly deflating ballon and a child trying to save it with one last breath until they run out of air. Between the budget and home owners getting their first full property tax bill we will deflate again as we run out of air (money) to keep it all afloat. Recession ends when the government stop squeezing the living daylights out of the population and about 3 to 5 years have passed and people see real wage growth, not until then should the end be called.
exactly , and that is the point I’m trying to make. They choose to take 3 months worth of data over the summer (skewed data) and declare that we’re out of recession, but when you look at each year or the last 3 – 4 years as a whole we have never left recession. It will now take another 6 – 9 months before they technically declare that we are back in recession. Totally miss-leading and making the rules up as you go along. I really wish we were out of recession, and kept out of it but dragging along the bottom is not that by a long shot.
Technically…but its worth reminding the government before they start clapping themselves on the back that the South East has an unemployment rate of between 20 and 25%. During the Great Depression the US’s unemployment rate was between…20 and 25%.
So while Ireland is “technically” out of a recession, at least 1/5th of the country is very much still in a depression, and the day when it looks like it will only be in a recession is still a long way off.
Correction…. all of Ireland is in recession (0.4% contraction).
Accountants running Corporate profits earned elsewhere through Ireland have increased.
Thank god for those accountants eh!!
Awful news, can’t be true, boooo, booooo, everyone is against us, believe nothing! How can good news actually be positive, nobody is allowed be happy when I am miserable, ever!
Try learning the difference between GDP and GNP and then decide if your happy or sad.
Facts are:
– The Irish economy contracted.
– Foreign multi-national profits booked through Ireland increased.
So watch as the media will p*$$ itself like an excited dog.
And the positive/government spin put on this by Pravda/RTE implied we can all run out and buy new cars!
Dear negative naysaying ninnies,
Just because the definition of a recession = two consecutive quarters of negative growth, it does not follow that exiting a recession has to have consecutive quarters of positive growth, in fact, by definition it cannot (think about it).
Yes, GNP is also an important barometer; however, in an export led economy like Ireland’s, GDP is also very relevant.
Yours,
Bob
Actually Bob it does. They could check our growth ever day and say one day of contraction is recession and one day of growth is out of recession but that would be stupid. The same stupid idea as not having the same rules for both declaring in or out of recession. There are many ways to view on how you look at it. But the same rules must apply for entering or exiting other wise what the hell is the point.
We might as well say you need 10 years of negative growth to be in a recession and 1 hour of growth to exit it.
Actually Simon it doesn’t – you cannot have the same rules.
The definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth . One quarter (NOTE A QUARTER – NOT AN HOUR) of positive growth means you are no longer in a recession. BY DEFINITION.
And then when they measure it over the year they see we were actually in recession . so how it that out of recession ???
A nd remember we are talking about technically here not actually which is what you are describing. most people use that term to mean the opposite or with a clause.. like technically he’s right but. !!!
1) Irelands economy contracted.
2) The amount of foreing multi-national profit booked (but not earned) through Ireland increased.
Both of the above are facts.
However when spin can make accountancy look like economic growth, we are in a bad spot.
Forgive us if we do not pop the champagne corks just yet.
Simon, recession is a binary state. You are either in it or you are not. We are currently not in it.
Talking about measuring it over the year is not really relevant, as recession is defined with reference to two consecutive quarters. One quarter is enough to end it and it requires another two consecutive quarters for it to be a recession again.
This is not to say that annualized figures are not important – they are.
I think we can agree that the technical stuff is a bit washy at best especially when you start choosing whether to report on GDP or GNP. I Don’t think anyone on here actually believes we are out of the recession really, but does make good sensational headlines.
Just a question for you bob. If we have 2 consecutive quarters of growth followed by 1 quarter of contraction are we in recession or not.? your answer would be no we’re not, yet the quarter actually contracted. ie your binary state does not work in this direction how can we be in growth yet a contracted state. ,
Simon – recession is a technical term that has a fixed definition. You can choose to change that definition if you want, but you would be wrong, as would anyone else who says we are not out of recession.
The story is correct. According to the agreed way to measure recession, Ireland is currently not in one.
It’s a small bit of good news – I’m sorry that upsets you.
Doesn’t upset me cause it not good new or bad news, It’s no news. But you can be sure the government will big it up, take credit for it and spin it as much as possible, and thats the bit that annoys me.
Fortunately, by most the posts on here, no one really belives all this shite anyways. Most people decide for themselves if we are in recession or not by how their pockets are hit and how much disposable income they have left at the end of the month.
So Simon am I right in thinking you believe the govt has no input into things that progress the country but anything that goes wrong they are completely at fault for. That’s solid reasoning !!!
Fortunately, most of the posts on here regarding our economy, and Irish politics in general, are in no way representative of what the wider country thinks.
If I may put Bob’s point (as I understand it) another way: exiting recession happens immediately there is one quarter of positive growth. That’s the definition. Entering recession happens only once you have two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Therefore, even if next quarter has a contraction of GDP, you’re *still not in a recession*. Once you exit recession it is at least six months before you can be declared as having entered it again, no matter what happens.
So when people here have talked about being back in recession by December – that’s literally impossible. Even the most pessimistic view would have to be that we’ll be out of recession until March 2014.
I’m on the plane back from auz as we speak ……..lol ye roysh bleeding kip hope I never have to go back only thing I miss about the place is my family if I had the money I’d fly them all out here learned about home sickness a long time ago I won’t make that same mistake,rant over
Great the thousands of emigrants can come home, when word gets out the ports and airports will be flat out with all the inbound traffic
TECHNICALLY? No, no. R.T.E. announced on the 1 O’clock news that “the Recession is over”. Perhaps if they all say it often enough it might come true? No?
And if gdp falls in the next quater were back in.
So what?
Besides the recession continues in Ireland.
The increase in GDP was just down to profits of Google & Apple being funneled through Ireland.
If we have to rely on accountancy gimmickry to be out (temporarily) from recession, then there is little hope.
Recession is not over by a long shot in my house.
The government is like a bad plasterer ,plastering over the cracks won’t work in the long term,regardless of today’s results IMF will still pull the purse strings come next Budget….
Regardless of whether or not were in or out of recession, has anyone else noticed the amount of small building sites that have popped up recently around Dublin. I’m talking extensions onto houses and old ruins of houses getting renovated.
I’ve also noticed a lot more construction traffic on the roads.
It’s moving, but very slowly and it could still end up stopping.
Wow, l can eat now.
Talk it up people for the world to see. Talking it down helps nobody.
It will make no difference in the short term, this is a depression.
Gullible Irish sheep!
‘This budget will be the last of the harsh ones’ – unlikely.
Another dead cat bounce. What a load of tripe.
Dig a 1000ft hole which we all live in. then hire a man with a bucket, rope and pulley… by the end of the day are you still in the hole?
By the way the man was sent out by the council.
Looking at all comment,
What a lot of silly ass wipes you lot are,GDP and MPT And don’t forget JPD and JCB if you are having a hard time not paying bill’s and the bank and the cre card well that is just fab for you it is all you deserve and more you here
a lot of bull on TV and radio and you fall for it. until the world recover’s (can you lot get that ) RECOVER There is not a thing you can do about
it And twice as hard when you have a master’s in bullshit and more bullshit
Emigrated a few years ago, and haven’t been back
From the comments it seems its awful there.
Are ye all starving?
Will i send over some food?
I Can get a good deal on the Kiwi fruit
What it means is that we can technically exit recession until we pass an austerity budget – then we can go back into recession again
This is the usual media spin garbage put out so average Joe thinks things are on the up so you dont question when prices and interest rates start increasing again!
There’s no “technical” about it; we are currently out of recession.
The problem is that the media, with its understandable need to find easy soundbites and buzzwords to cling to, have overused “recession” as a synonym for “economy no do so good right now” that it’s lost all its real meaning to a lot of people. (See also: “credit crunch”)
The reality is that it’s not a matter of whether we’re “technically” or “really” out of recession; it’s that GDP growth is only component in what drives improvement in living standards for people. We are out of recession but that’s not a magic wand that makes everything magically better.
The good news, such as it is, is that it’s pretty much impossible for living standards to improve *without* GDP growth so it is a step towards economic recovery: but just that: a *step*.
It will at least be about 10 years before ireland gets back on it feet, as a true irish man that had to leave and move to the UK where work is still very tight; all that left to be said is if you are young and able get out of there soon while you can.
I technically smell bullshit !
Never seen a country so negative, get over yourselves and get on with it
We may go back to our old ways so if that’s the case, it worked well the last time
Ok no one is starvin, stop whinging then
“Technically” Communism works…
Where they get their figures from is baffling.
False flag !!!
My own personel GDP is in great shape thanks,never better,then again it was achieved mostly by common sense and my own effort,if it was replicated nation wide the country would be back in business in no time.
We’ve turned a corner !!!,is this déjà vu?
I am technically pissed off at this bunch of muppets trying to tell us this tripe.
Noonan behaves like athe attendent rearranging the deckchairs on the
Titanic! You know its all going to end in tears. What do they think we are?
Do they not know by now that we dont believe ANYTHING the bastards say
technical or otherwise…..technically feck off Noonan !
have your say