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Dublin: 15 °C Saturday 25 May, 2013

IMF: Allowing homes to restructure debt will solve crisis quicker

A new global report concludes that economic crises are worse if households accumulate more debt during a boom.

Image: Images_of_Money via Flickr

A MAJOR NEW REPORT carried out by the IMF has concluded that economies will take longer to recover if households have accumulated more debt – and that allowing it to be restructured will help a recovery.

The World Economic Outlook’s paper ‘Dealing with Household Debt‘ finds that economies see far larger contractions when housing markets collapse in periods of high household debt, including the likes of mortgage debt, credit cards and personal loans.

“Household consumption and real GDP fall substantially more, unemployment rises more, and the reduction in economic activity persists for at least five years,” the IMF said, noting that this outcome was “sobering” for economies like Ireland, where household debts peaked at more than double their annual income.

The report doesn’t say that the burden of household debt causes an economic crisis, but rather than the burdens faced by individual households means that they are less likely to wield greater spending power, which in turn hurts governmental incomes.

It suggests that broader policies – such as allowing debt restructuring and monetary easing – can help to tackle the difficulties of individual households, stating:

Government policies aimed at reducing a household’s debt relative to its assets – and its debt service payments relative to its income – could be an inexpensive way to mitigate the negative effects of household deleveraging on economic activity.

In a nod to the likes of Ireland, which has spent large chunks of public cash helping the banking sector – and which cannot act unilaterally in monetary terms, because of its euro membership – it adds:

Such policies are particularly relevant for economies today that have limited scope for expansionary macroeconomic policies and in which the financial sector has already received government support.

The report notes that similar programmes being adopted in Iceland today can reduce the number of household defaults and foreclosures on homes, which in turn helps to stop a fall in property prices and arrest an economic decline.

“But these programs must be carefully designed. If access to them is overly restrictive, they will not have the full intended impact. And if they are too broad and imposed on an already fragile financial sector, they can cause a dangerous credit crunch.”

A draft government bill approved by ministers three months ago hopes to give banks an incentive to help mortgage holders restructure their loans, as well as making sweeping changes to Irish bankruptcy law.

In full: Read the IMF’s ‘Dealing with Household Debt’ paper (PDF)

More: Government’s new debt regime may allow mortgage debt to be written off

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Comments (26 Comments)

  • Yeah, seems kinds obvious: drop the rate of the loan, pop a couple of years on the end so mortgage holders can make the monthly repayments so you have less default and less poisoned assets on the books…how much did it cost to get the report done.

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  • I’d say we’ve nothing to lose at this stage! We practically own the banks anyway! One thing’s for sure though! The government being the bunch of clowns that they are, will manage to find some way of making a complete bollox of it!

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  • Ahh Iceland the tiny country that burned all bondholders and the world did not come to an end and also put its prime minister on trial…. just pity we only have a letter in the difference and not a government .Fking IMF they getting plenty of first hand feedback on how not to revitalise a economy by observing its litle lab rat Ireland…

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  • Duh! The dogs in the streets knew that. Austerity has never worked. Good to see the vulturistic IMF powers come down to Earth!

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  • Somehow progressive political thinking and the average Irish politician don’t sit too well together…

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  • Well instead of debt reduction, our government, in it’s infinite wisdom, decides to instate an arbitrary household tax. It’s as if not satisfied with a destroyed economy, they now wish to grind post-sovereign Ireland into the earth with their expensive designer shoes. That’s what we get when we vote kleptocrats into power. Maybe next time we’ll vote right and won’t have to pay so much protection money.

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  • The German Franco alliance will block such a move as its not in their economies/banks interests. The welfare of over stretched Irish families is of little concern to the big players. Ireland would be better of dropping out of the Euro at this point to implement such measures and get people spending again. It’s our only hope.

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  • Would it not of made more sense to do this study BEFORE they bailed out countries? Study first, speak later.

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  • Agree with this. Also think that this country should also look long and hard at the tax rate, are they over-taxing the public? Is this bad for the Economy. My opinion is yes and yes. I also think that a few steps to improve competition in the retail sector (esp supermarkets) would have a beneficial effect on increasing disposable income. I can’t help but feel there is an oligopoly keeping prices artificially high when compares to other European countries. Increase disposable income and you increase the flows in your Ecomony, multiplier effect, increase employment, economic growth, etc, etc.

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  • Floodzie 11/04/12 #

    A similar scheme to Iceland (as suggested by Joan Burton but now mysteriously never mentioned again – maybe this report will jog her memory) is the ONLY solution to get this economy back on track. This involved reducing all negative-equity mortgages to a maximum of 110% of the property value. Rather than adding the remaining money onto the end of the mortgage – as has been suggested by posters here – that portion of the debt was simply forgiven. This provided certainty to homeowners and kickstarted the housing market and real economy.

    It may seem unfair that we all pay for debt forgiveness for the minority, however money saved on mortgage debt goes straight back into the real economy and this is better for everyone.

    Struggling homeowners will likely save some money (good for the banks and those they lend to) but will almost certainly spend the majority of what they save on mortgage payments in the real economy – the local shop, pub, mechanic, plumber, builders. This is good for everyone and is what this economy badly needs.

    Sometimes the best solutions are the most straightforward. We need about 12 billion to fix the negative equity problem in this way – we will also be asking lenders to Ireland to forgive similar sums… lets use that money to handle the mortgage problem before it becomes a major crisis, dragging the economy yet further into the mire.

    You think the economy is bad now? Unless household debt is addressed, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

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    • “It may seem unfair that we all pay for debt forgiveness for the minority, however money saved on mortgage debt goes straight back into the real economy and this is better for everyone”

      so the people who were reckless in regard to spending will have more money which they can put back in to the economy by recklessly spending again. Note to self: prudence does not pay.

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  • Completely agree. More money in the economy is vital.

    Any morgage forgiveness results in a hit to the bank, which are underwritten fully by the Government so the taxpayer picks up the bill. So why not give very person in the state a share of the money that would be have been allocated to the mortage forgiveness. That should result in a higher % of the money entering the economy as some of the people who receive will be in a better position to spend on spontaneous or non-critical items compared to only those looking for mortage forgiveness. House prices are screwed anyway, so the odd foreclosure wont change anything dramatically.

    The taxpayer is underwriting all of this away, so each taxpayer might as well be involved in the flow of money back in to the economy.

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  • meehaneo 11/04/12 #

    Allowing household debt to be restructured will help economy. They needed to say this in “a major report”. They should rename the IMF the SBO … Staters of the Bleeding’ Obvious!

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  • Floodzie 11/04/12 #

    More money in the economy is a very very good thing. It is exactly the lack of money in the real economy that is causing our current difficulties.

    How do you suggest we reduce unemployment if not by increasing spending?? How many shops, mechanics, plumbers etc will hire without customers?

    What is your solution to kickstart the real economy?

    Reply

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