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SOME HAVE BEEN saying for a while that the age of crisis was coming to an end.
But in Switzerland this week, the world’s elites seemed to finally made it official.
The global economic crisis has come to an end.
Here’s a review of the week in Davos from Peter Coy and BusinessWeek:
The hive mind of Davos has concluded that the financial crisis is done, finished. The new worry: a bubble in the credit markets.There is no official declaration, or even a formal survey. But the chatter at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, is about the end of the financial crisis that began in 2008 and dragged on through last summer’s spike in Spanish and Italian government bond yields. “There’s a crystallization of thought that the financial crisis is over,” says Scott Minerd, managing partner and chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners, a Santa Monica (Calif.) firm with about $160 billion under management.
And here’s Iam Bremmer writing at The Huffington Post:
So why has Davos decided to look on the bright side? I’d sum it up as follows:There’s a sense that the world economy has turned the corner, and after four years, the financial crisis is finally behind us. Not only are people much more attuned to the new environment of risks, but also, there is a sense that the downsides are nearing their limits. Sure, the eurozone is suffering through record unemployment and a bleak economic environment–but defaults or a eurozone breakup didn’t pan out. A double-dip recession in the U.S. never materialized. The threats are still disparate and uncertain, of course, but it feels like the cataclysmic possibilities are off the table for the time being.
The mood at Davos echoes what we’re hearing from non-Alpine pundits, like Mohamed El-Erian and others, who have been talking about how the ‘New Normal’ might be coming to an end.
Even earlier, economists like Jan Hatzius at Goldman had been calling for 2013 to represent a big global economic turning point.
Great news. Except if you’re in the news business.
- Joe Wiesenthal
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Oh thats just great because pretty much everybody in Ireland dosn’t.
It’s only getting going here! Well that’s what our propaganda machine and dictatorship of a government lead us to believe…
What’s a “dosen’t” ?
Or a dosn’t ?
The markets have concluded that the countries in Europe won’t be let default so we can lend to them as much as we want, even if the death levels are unsustainable. And while the world economy is on the up, the problems of Europe a far from solved.
richard /paddy/mark/michael…. what’s up saddo,did someone report you to twitter and the journal *again* for opening false accounts in order to troll .
Your as sad and pathetic as the liar you protect.. Gobshi*e
Mike
Do you ever write without the vulgarity or the foul tongue. It is totally in necessary and actually makes you appear crude and uneducated. When seen in that light you can only appeal to your own and I’m sure that’s not your objective.
richard/paddy/mark/michael j.
When it come to describing a sad troll that feels the need to cower behind so many false identities in order to hide your identity I just couldn’t care less.
Your a sad pathetic tripe spewing troll.
Pretty much everyone in Irealnd wouldn’t acknowledge a good news story under any circumstances because it would mean we’d have to stop whingeing for a minute. What would we do then? smile? Never! Not while people in suits are nailing our children to the floor with red hot spikes and….you know the rest. Whinge on dudes!
The night is darkest just before the dawn.
and a pig just flew over my house .
Flying Rasher Sandwiches, shoot it down next time Enda open his mouth!
Reminds of the infamous line by the late Brian Lenihan in 2009 “Our plan is working, we’ve turned a corner” … we did alright and then off a cliff!So the rich and elite have decided we’re all ok again?hurrraaayyy!!think ill turn on the light and have some milk with my bread for supper
Better go and buy a mansion and a Jaguar XJ before the prices rise to Celtic Tiger levels again!
/sarcasm
The XJ is ghastly looking, get a 7 series instead.
What that crowd are really saying is! We have succeeded in putting the lower order back in the gutter where they belong! Now we can get back to making even larger profits At their expense. Roll on the good times once more!!
The Financial Crisis won’t be over in Ireland until we tackle the 3 headed monster of Bank Guarantee, Public Sector Pay and Personal Debt Forgiveness for hopelessly struggling mortgage holders.
See the negitive brigade are out inforce today am i the only one to see this as a good thing??? Are people that hard up they choose to look for the bad in absolutely everythin
Nope when you’ve no money, can’t pay your mortgage and struggling to feed kids and pay bills Davos might as well be on another planet.
Yes you are and yes.
Jay people are pissed off at the govt and at the same time waiting around for the govt to fix all their problems, while obviously going mad if any cuts to social welfare/public service wages and allowances are made during that time. They’ll never be happy with that level of assumed entitlement.
If the outlook posited by these publications comes to pass, it’s fantastic news so no, you’re not the only one who sees this as a good thing. In fact, check back in a half hour and the comments that have been swarmed with red thumbs (such as this) will be agreeing with you. You”ll have to trawl through a mountain of green-thumbed populist rhetoric where people blame “de bankers” for their ills and conveniently ignore any personal responsibility though.
Yeah emmet i agree full
what can we do tho when the government and bankers held us at gunpoint and forced us to take out a mortage that would be unsustainable for 4 people to pay never mind one ha .
Global growth means growth for ireland people
Our government needs to be ousted, and before march when their lucrative pensions kick in. As the media have shied away from no confidence (probably doing as they’re told) one way to get them out is petition or countrywide protests. But how to organise this I’m not sure.
Emmett what would you know your over on the dessert with your head in the sand.You’l be a tycoon some day i know you will goodman.
Rob what makes you think any other party would do a better job
Yeah Jack I left five months ago but what’s brilliant is that they have the internet over here and I’m allowed read Irish news – amazing! I made the move to better my situation, just like anyone else is free to, and I never felt that I was entitled to anything, or that anything was going to happen if I sat around in Ireland waiting for it. You have people here every day talking about how they won’t pay no new taxes, but that at the same time the govt shouldn’t make any cuts, and that somehow the country should somehow be magically back on track. It’s a downtrodden and yet entitled viewpoint at the same time, yet it’s so enshrined in a lot of people now that this Davos story is somehow worth a moan too. There’s a ton of rubbish economic news out there, so let’s be positive when good news – however speculative – pops up too.
Emmett look d think the money we owe now and the money we owed before the bailout.The bailout of zombie toxic banks that are not investing anything back into the country but instead there just thrown it at a blackhole of debt .You got out and your doing good and fair fkn dues to you your in an environment now where money is king and there’s loads of it floating around .We were told this last year, nothing only global economy sinking propped up by central banks printing money none of it seeing the people only all of it sitting in banks making there numbers look good .Before you come on saying where a pesimistic bunch and Bankers are not to blame remember your people back here and remember what’s been done to them and dont ever forget it.The last thing we need is young people going away and coming back and being the same as the arseholes that landed us in the shit.People here are suffering and their not complaining half enough if you ask me .
Rob Feb 9th, nationwide protest marchs. http://www.ictu.ie/jobsnotdebt/
Stop complaining about your situation and do something about it. Stop blaming others and get on with it
The main issue is that so far, we don’t have leadership or any focus for people’s anger.
The ICTU and all that lot had their snouts buried deeply in the trough. They lack credibility now.
We need a new way. And I’d like a little bit of revenge too. Hanging all the membership of the current and last Dail by the neck from the spire would be a good start.
Not for us.
Why the hell are you all so negative? I think you must have an allergy to good news or signs of confidence. You (the majority find fault with everything reported, and display crass I ignorance most of the time. This Government was dealt a crap hand of cards. I agree it did itself no favours by making promises which now turns out it could not meet, however the bulk of you are carping if not trolling. If you wish to debate issues ,please , at least, get very basic facts right. You are decrying the positive noises from Davos. Would you really prefer them to be negative. What drives you guys?
“What drives you guys?”
A lack of tolerance for force fed bullsh*t perhaps?
Let’s all move to davos. This shows what a useless shower economists are, did they curb reckless lending or call for more regulation during our boom? Almost all did not. Are they able to articulate and justify the write down our leaders promised? Most are well paid academics living apart from the economic reality of the working and middle class…
“Most are well paid academics…”
Who did you expect to be invited?
Some are well paid thickos!
As a first year undergrad Economics student, I am taking offence :P
Of course the crisis is over for the worlds elite. When you have the likes of Fine Gael and Labour agreeing to and continuing to repay every cent of billions and billions of euro to these people, yes, the crisis for them is over. It would still be a crisis for them though if our government bucked the trend and said NO we are not paying you back.
Barbara do you understand the implications of not paying debts?
Bryan do you understand the implications of someone going to sleep one night and waking up to find you your kids and theirs too now owe the E.U 13’000 grand each just for sleeping.Do you understand that if another person/people take on a debt and give a guarantee you will pay it without asking you and then they take what money they have which is also being contributed by you and disappear off into the sunset .Do you understand that makes no sense whats so ever to anyone ever but the people who own your debt that isnt yours and the people who put that debt on you.Ye Capitalists have torn up yere rule book because in Capitalism you bet big you win big you loose big not you bet big you win you get paid you loose somebody else pays.People who advocate the money game and the risks and the wealth that comes with it seem to forget that when you loose you loose so all other arguments to the contrary are by sell out Capitalists otherwise called gangstergamblers.
Jack that’s the way life rolls, and always will!
Bryan do you not understand the term UNSECURED? http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/american_english/unsecured
Ohh I do, that’s why I’m paying my UNSECURED debts!
Fair play Byran, so am I because at the moment I can just about afford to. If things change these debts will go to the bottom of the pile and I will pay what I can afford for as long as i can afford to. At the moment the country can’t afford to pay the unsecured loans. The money that is currently being dumped into the black hole of the bond holders should instead be spent on job creation. Get people back to work, more PAYE, less social welfare payments. Then when this is done, and only then, start to pay back the unsecured debts.
Sure we may go down Argentinas route so, seems to be working for them,NOT
Bryan dont you think life should roll another way.I say something against GOV people say ah your negative but im not negative im positive .By finding out the problem and trying to fix it that’s positive and if you have to be negative to find the problem then that’s what you got to do to be ultimately positive.What’;s really negative is people excepting the problem and trying to be positive about it.Be the change you want to see it can be done.
Bryan we could go down the Icelandic way. Don’t pay back what can’t be afforded and jail those at fault.
But no matter how much you huff and puff it won’t make a difference, another bar stool warrior in the making!
Ya Bryan you stay there and let us do the fighting for you .Its a win win situation if things stay the same ur cool with that and if people change it you wont have to pay those unsecured debts.First they ignore you ,then they laugh at you ,then they fight you, and then you win.Gandhi he beat them he said that too.We’l see sure .
So Bryan seen that you say it won’t make a difference we should all just roll over and play dead is it? And that will make a difference will it? Bar stool warrior in the making? How do you make that out? At least ill be getting up off my ass on Feb 9th to make my voice heard. Where will you be?
Jack, what are you doing towards this change you wish to see?
Bleating Bryan….Baaaa Baaaa Ewe feeling alright, roll over there’s a good lad.
The iclandic way ????
With a population of 320k people 70% businesses were forced into insolvancy straight away
Yeah thats what we need with our population on 4m
anybody who uses iceland as an example has absolutly no idea of what happend in iceland bar what they read on some rambling comment from ill informed person on this
Jay unemployment in Iceland “rocketed” to 4%, the restructuring of the banks meant taxpayers weren’t held liable for excessive private debt, instead of introducing austerity the government actually increased spending and social welfare payments to increase spending and 4 years later Iceland has started to show economic growth. As well as that they have now repaid over 1/2 of their debt to Britain and The Netherlands. And the bond markets have welcomed them back with open arms, last May they sold $1bn in 10 year bonds at 4.07% and that has since dropped to 2.93%, so not too shabby for a country that burnt the bond holders. What have we got, we still “owe” the bond holders and we owe the IMF/ECB for the money to pay back the bond holders. Great deal, ya right.
Sorry Jay unemployment in Iceland is now down to 4%, it did go as high as 9.3%.
http://guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/apr/12/iceland-ireland-portugal-markets. The Guardian April 2011 Jay.
Iceland has a booming fish industry and always had its not to hard to get growth when youve bankrupted 70% ofthe country in 1 day
What exports haw we got that will keep 4m people afloat ?? Guinness and whiskey ???
And if you actually did propper research on iceland you would know that they actually tried to bail out the banks but their government were to incompetant to actually do it .
Comparing iceland which has a booming export market and less of a population of dublin to this country which has a service based economy is down right crazy i dont expect you to agree with me as your blinded by what you want to see i just hope other people dont entertain your cut and shut economics
Jay where are you getting your figure of 70%? The only figures I can find about Icelandic businesses going bankrupt is that between 80 and 90% should have gone bankrupt but didn’t. The government brought in loan forgiveness where businesses could show that with some of their loans being written off they had a reasonable expectation of returning to profitability.
http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/europe/the-lesson-from-iceland-let-banks-go-bust-20800 Moneyweek from Feb. 2012.
http://m.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2012/aug/21/iceland-debt-relief-lessons-eurozone And The Guardian from last August.
Fair enough Jay, obviously 2 sets of figures and lets face it anyone of us can find reports online to support our own particular viewpoint. It just goes to show there’s no one right solution. But midway through that article you posted the 2 lines that stood out for me are ” The worst is behind them. Ireland has no such luck”.
The worsr is behind them because their export market is carrying the country we dont have such luck we arent an export economy we hare a completly services based economy
Jay our exports are up practically every year since 1990. Our trade surplus in 1990 was €2,372m in 2011 (the most up to date figures available from the CSO) it was €42,513m.
http://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/externaltrade/annualexternaltradem/
Whats irelands biggest export???
Belive it or not bananas.. We dont grow bananas we import and imediatly export them as we are the closest base to europe … We dont generate many jobs from this .. Now if we grew them ourselves like the way the icelandic fish the fish themselves we would have an economy with a chance to recover quickly but unfortunatly this isnt the case
Jay where do you get your facts from? Here are the top 250 exporters on July 27th 2011. Not a banana in sight. http://www.irishexporters.ie/section/IEARevealIrelandsTop250Exporters
Also Iceland’s exports are rising but so are their imports. In 2011 v 2010 exports were up 10.2% but imports were up 17.1%
There is a world beyond Ireland. And in most of that world, the ‘crisis’ per se is over. The challenge now is to incentivise private sector investment which, in turn, will alleviate unemployment. However, European policymakers need to do more to signal a commitment to greater economic growth rather than being focused on inflation.
Like Spain with an unemployment rate of 26%?
Like countries that are not committing suicide through ideologically driven austerity policies.
World unemployment likely to be about 6%
http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/—dgreports/—dcomm/—publ/documents/publication/wcms_202326.pdf
As indicated by every agency forecasting trends for 2013, there is now a clear dichotomy between the fast-growing emerging markets (e.g. China, Brazil) and Europe. For example, the average unemployment rate in Asia is 4% and the average growth rate in emerging markets is 5.5%
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/update/01/
And the average wage is?
I didn’t think FG / labour had a department over there
Misinterpretations galore! No-one’s saying the hardships have ended. No one’s saying everything’s smelling of roses and austerity is unnecessary.
What has been said is that the bets are firmly on the euro zone economy and wider economy has stabilized. In other words, the damage done is the damage done, but there shouldn’t be anymore nasty unexpected surprises in the future and the ESM should have a large enough fund be able to cover any possible bail-outs needed by member countries.
You can’t call someone a liar because you misinterpret what they’ve said. Well, you can, but it makes you look kinda stupid and unthinking…
Cue the rake of “the elite are out to get me”, “the economists are looking after their pensions” and “Gerry Adams is a wise and learned man” comments…..
Message from Davos
“It’s the rich what gets the pleasure
It’s the poor what gets the pain.”
You don’t have to be poor Barry
“the poor” don’t have internet connections.
It is over for those politicians and their families. Like Gilmore and Kenny they all have their finances and their families welfare nicely sorted out. It’s our children and grandchildren who will suffer and end up paying double.
More bull…t
When will the evil of Davros cease?
If it is one thing the Irish are good at it is turning good news into bad news. They constantly feel sorry for themselves thinking that they have a raw deal and deserve better handouts. Perhaps a lot of Irish people have inferiority complexes because they are in fact inferior. It is lucky, however, that we have enough enterprising intelligent people whose outlook and actions far outweigh the the inane actions of the perpetual begrudgers.
irish people are inferior? wtf are you talking about idiot?
Graham it is obvious that you did not understand the meaning of my post. Perhaps this is my fault – I should posted a simple little message that might be easier for you to understand.
patrick i think many people do not understand your gibberish.when you sober up then get back to me.
@ P Lyons – to be fair, I think you need to distinguish between the commenters here and the Irish people as a whole. This site is in no way an accurate representation of the sum of Irish citizens / residents.
FG tw@t.
Nevermind Pat he’s the ghost of Cromwell.
Thanks be to God
Patrick, maybe they should take Bertie’s advice to economists once upon a time?
Stephen
What would that be?
Nicholas, I am inclined to agree with you.
Nikolas, I’m disappointed that you agree with Patrick Lyons, a man who has publicly displayed his hatred and distaste for Irish people on numerous occasions. If you don’t like the ambiance on the journal why do you bother commenting?
Presuming negativity in others shows that the recovery will have arrived ahead of the economic forecasters willingness to admit it.
For all the feel gooders where were you between 2000 and 2004 ??? Enjoying the safari … you were the I of the tiger .. We had a national debt of 30 billion with McCreeveys next egg as saver for pension days .. Now most of us don’t know how much debt we owe with little of the next egg left.. If you ran your personal finances the way politicians ran this country you would owe 3 to 4 times what used to be owed.. That’s the mess we are in .. More debt .. I see the sun shining yes I love my days better than most but in also realistic as to what has happened us.. Davros ya ill have a little bit for tea Thanks ..
Listen ok The World Financial Crisis is over they said so.That’s good enough for patrick my nephew who does’nt really understand the term bullshit yet or lies or spin or stupidity he dont know much really he still only a year and 6 months but when i told him he nodded and smiled and said yayyy.Just like some of the other innocent children on here .
Jack How can you call it bullshit has the world economy been on its axles like this before?? Do you have a world wide economics degree?? Do you know something we dont??? Who are you to dictate whats bullshit ?? Who are you to decide its not stabilised ??? Idiot troll
oK Jay im going to remember you ok and when you snap out of your willfull denial and step back into reality the reality where the Global Economy is only being propped up by printing money shit loads that ultimately devalues all the currencies around the world to such an extent that they will be worthless .Now jay the eternal optimist if you want to believe everything your told by people who said it was over last year then you are the audience they are aiming for because its easy to deflect you with a bullshit statement like this, but they have to try harder with the rest of us.So i hope your still typing away in a years time on here because eveyrthing you say will be a joke to most people i dont doubt your an alright guy but you have to stop swallowing the bullshit man seriously.
The only country printing so much money that its devaluing it currency to a detramental level is the usa. Not europe. Ok so if your right and
“THE MAN” is lying to us .. Then who decides when its stabilising if not economists??? Will i knock in next door and ask mary has it stabilised??? However poor you feel their ethics were during the boom years. They are the only people qualified to make such a judgement call like stabilisation you dont want to accept that thats fine ill wait for mary to tell me its stabilised then ill drop you a call
Hey jay Draghi’s printing like there’s no tomorrow .I dont listen to economists who are on the payroll why would you their being paid to say hey everybody things are going to be fine dont worry.Now these are the same guys who were saying hey dont worry everything will be fine buy houses buy cars buy some tittys for your wife and they were saying this right up to the crash.You cant believe them there paid to feed you shit while your being robbed .All i will say to you is keep an open mind have a dig around do abit of research and you’l soon find out there’s a global currency coming so the others have to go and they will.The dollar is going down the U.S is 20 trillion in debt they cant pay it man mathamatically impossible their GOV treasury bonds will be declared worthless by the chinese and the dollars going down thats why all the big countries are scrambling ther gold togtether from all over the world its going to be the only currency in town.
So what your saying is there is no more economy ??? Its un saveable????? Of course the world is scrambling for gold Its the safest investment possible it only ever fluctuates moderatly anyone with large ammounts of cash are doing this. Thats just economics 101 …
@ JD – just to be clear, the announcement is that the “crisis” is over. You’re saying that this is not true. What is your definition of “crisis”? The euro-zone and world economies can be out of “crisis” and at the same time can be in bad shape. “Crisis” doesn’t just mean “bad shape”. It also means “unpredictable”. And when they say the “crisis” is over, they are saying ( IMHO ) that the period of unpredictability is over. It doesn’t mean good times are here again, but it does mean that it is every unlikely thatthe Euro currency will collapse, it is very unlikely that the EU will implode and it is very unlikely that there will be wide scale defaulting by indebted states and, even if Greece, for example does default, the damage from the default will be containable and won’t cause the wider European or world economy to collapse. And that is both good news and is also believable, looking at the bigger picture. But no-one’s singing “Sunshine, Lollipops & Rainbows” or chanting “let them eat cake.”
JD is 100% correct. Japan and the UK are also printing money like its confetti. There will be no happy ending to this. Saying otherwise is just ignorance or denial.
America is hiding massive debts many times bigger than their trillions official debt in the form of derivatives. This debt is terminal cancer to our economic system.
The only question is if this situation is a seeious of unrelated poor decisions or ochestrated. Time will tell but either way we are fooked. Prepare yourselves. The next decade will be scary.
Or pretend its OK
Why should we believe these gangsters , its because if the corrupt elite(bankers, property tycoons, fraudsters , gangster politicans and their henceman) that we have a global financial crisis in the first place , but they ain,t picking up the feckin tab ………….so no , the crisis for the Joe publics will not be over fir decades .
( history tells us that the markets crash an avg every 13 years , so tick tock tick tock , the future is not bright
Davos is not just about Ireland. The world does not revolve around Ireland.
Global GDP is forecast to grow by 4% in 2013. Unfortunately, European growth is the outlier, so we will not see any rebound. The key point from Davos is that the challenge for business people, politicians, and investors has moved from “crisis management” to “stimulating sustainable growth”.
As for some of the comments above, there is certainly some positive correlation between the level of literacy and the level of engagement with the topic being discussed, viz. whether the global crisis is over.
George Soros thinks otherwise!
let them eat cakes !
Things change things remain the same…
Religion, is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich!
Stephen
He asked you for an intelligent viewpoint!
Dreamers. ..
What does recovery mean to the doom merchants here?
Are you waiting for full employment? Not in our lifetime. But to sustain current levels is recovery…
Are you waiting for a new domestic boom? People won’t spend like that again… A property boom? Nowadays people would be happy with just the one house. But even that will never come so easy again… Continued free services? No longer sustainable & the country needs dependable regular income…
What you have now IS recovery – to a new reality. Get on with it…
What you have is, Irish citizens paying for a private debt! Look it up and learn something, Private debt+Public debt= A poor citizen!
Stephen, an intelligent contribution would be nice for a change. Like what you think recovery means…
You’re just trolling O’Reilly. Davos is not talking about an Irish recovery. Hopefully we can get some improvement on the back of a global recovery (good news), but until we resolve our own situation we’re still the sick man of Europe, confined to quarantine for fear of contagion.
The sick man of Europe Censored? What silo are you bunkered down in? To what purpose does it serve you and so many others here to fail to recognise that this country is moving in the right direction? Party before people comes to mind…
Look to yourself O’Reilly with your party before people comments. You’re deluded.
So you can’t articulate recovery. But you know what it isn’t?
Great news unless you live in reality….
Can we all move to Davos !
Interest rate rise on the way so.
have your say