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Dublin: 8 °C Wednesday 22 May, 2013

Ireland’s economy shrank 1.1 per cent in first quarter

The CSO has blamed a drop in both net exports and personal consumption.

A general view of Grafton Street, Dublin
A general view of Grafton Street, Dublin
Image: Niall Carson/PA Archive/Press Association Images

THE IRISH ECONOMY declined by 1.1 per cent in the first three months of this year when compared to the final quarter of 2011.

The CSO’s Quarterly National Accounts cite a drop in both net exports and personal consumption as the main reasons for the decline.

Personal expenditure declined by 2.1 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis between Q4 2011 and Q1 2012, while  decreased by €456m over the same period.

The distribution, transport, software and communications sector recorded a volume decrease of 9.7 per cent over the same period. Agriculture, forestry and fishing (-0.7 per cent) and public administration and defence (- 2.3 per cent) also fell.

The CSO said that increases in industry(+2.2 per cent) and other services (+1.5 per cent) partially offset these combined declines.

Meanwhile, both government expenditure (+2.2 per cent) and capital investment (+11.6 per cent) hand recorded increases on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The figures also show that economic performance over the last year was better than previously thought – with the CSO revising its growth estimate for the fourth quarter of 2011 upwards to 0.7 per cent of GDP from -0.2 per cent, meaning that the growth figure for the year was placed at 1.4 per cent.

The Quarterly National Accounts, scheduled to be published for the first time today, were inadvertently briefly published on the CSO website early yesterday. The CSO apologised for any inconvenience caused to its users.

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Comments (15 Comments)

  • Drop the VAT rate to re-invigorate sales, leave the income tax alone and stop the stealth taxes. Without doing that the general worker will have no spending money.

    Reply
    • Good ideas unfortunately the government will increase the house tax and car tax in the coming budget. Removing even more money from the domestic economy…..

      Reply
    • ” The policy instruments used to achieve the target were tax increases and cuts in capital expenditure. The tax
      increases proved counter-productive, discouraging investment, distorting the labour market and encouraging vast levels of tax evasion and avoidance. The capital expenditure cuts did not enter into the calculation of the CBD. The result was that while the government managed to reduce the Exchequer Borrowing Requirement
      (EBR) to GDP ratio, the CBD/GDP and public debt/GDP continued to increase until 1986. The Prime Minister of the time, Garret FitzGerald, now accepts that his government’s choice of the current budget deficit as the target for fiscal policy was ill advised and it would have been better to target the EBR (FitzGerald, 1995)”
      Tales of Expansionary Fiscal Contractions in Two European Countries: Hindsight and Foresight
      ( Considine, Duffy)

      Exactly 30 years after FG/Labour failed attempt at a fiscal correction, they have managed to do the same again.
      Clearly, they are not capable of competent fiscal or economic governance.

      Reply
    • Dropping the VAT rate would only increase company profits as they would not pass on reduction to customers. This would only work if companies have a legal obligation to pass on the rate reduction. This will not happen because if shops are forced by law to pass on reductions, they would argue that banks would have to do the same for interest rate reductions, fuel prices would also have to be reduced as companies are getting crude oil a lot cheaper now but prices at the pump do not reflect this. A way around this would be to lower income tax rate by about 0.10% for every 1% of a VAT change. This would ensure that people have extra money to buy stuff than to believe companies will pass on a VAT cut.

      Reply
    • CSEC, within competitive markets businesses that pass on savings/vat reductions will gain Market share. Those that don’t will lose Market share.

      Reply
  • mel 12/07/12 #

    Vote for jobs and prosperity!
    Such crap !!

    Reply
    • Yes jobs and prosperity for the euro elite over in Brussles. They have just voted themselves another pay rise. The EU budget has gone up again last year. The EU accounts have not been signed off for the past 16 years! Meanwhile Spain cuts E65 billion off its budget

      Reply
  • Economy shrinks 1.1%. Great to see all that prospertiy and jobs following the passing of the fiscal treaty!

    Keep it up Enda, your doing a great job!

    Reply
  • I don’t get it – Irish Times is reporting that economy grew in the first 3 months of this year … http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2012/0712/1224319862378.html

    Reply
    • Oh don’t worry Daniel. The government propaganda machine sometimes sends the wrong e-mail to the wrong media outlet. Obviously the Irish Times got the e-mail intended for The Financial Times Deutschland. It’s not a problem really. The Ministry of Truth will rectify all with updated data and nobody will be any the wiser.

      Reply
  • “the growth figure for the year was placed at 1.4 per cent.”
    Maybe I read the article wrong – but how is economic stagnation something to be happy about?

    Reply
  • I stopped buying Booze. That’ll hurt them!

    Reply
  • So much for export led recovery. Export figures are a fluke of the markets, good or bad.
    The Euro is so weak we should be pumping product into UK, USA and markets further afield outside euro zone.
    No, let’s trundle on as usual and wait for something to turn up that can be spun into a positive and shoved down out throats as progress/recovery.

    Reply
  • In other (unrelated!) news, the troika are happy with irelands progress

    Reply
  • CSEC BIO 12/07/12 #

    Anyone read my first comment in full? I said VAT decreases do not work to increase consumer spending but reducing income tax by roughly 0.1% would give the consumer real benefit to approximately a 1% VAT decrease. By reducing the Income Taxes rate by even a little amount would’ve a greater impact than a major VAT rate change to consumers and not to companies.

    Reply

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