Business ETC uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more »
Dublin: 11 °C Sunday 26 May, 2013

Recession returns as Ireland’s economic output falls again

Irish economic output has declined for two successive quarters – meaning Ireland is technically back into a recession.

Image: Barry Batchelor/PA Wire/Press Association Images

NEW FIGURES RELEASED by the Central Statistics Office show that Ireland’s economic output decreased in the last quarter of 2011 – putting Ireland back into a recession.

Ireland’s Gross Domestic Product declined by 0.2 per cent in the final quarter of the year, following on from a 1.9 per cent decline between July and September.

Gross National Product – which is seen by some as a more reliable indication of the domestic economy – shrank by 2.2 per cent between October and December, having fallen by the same rate in the third quarter.

With both measures indicating that the economy shrank for two successive quarters, it can now officially be declared that Ireland has re-entered recession.

Those quarterly rates of decline also mark the worst rates since early 2009, and reverse much of the growth recorded in the first two quarters of last year.

On a year by year basis, GDP – the total value of all goods and services produced in Ireland – increased by 0.7 per cent, though this is below the rate of inflation. GNP was down by 2.5 per cent before inflation kicks in.

The GDP increase for 2011 follows three consecutive years of decline, from 2008 to 2010.

The employers’ group IBEC saw positives in the figures, noting that overall growth was up for the year, but said the priority for 2012 had to be job creation.

Sector by sector

Today’s figures for 2011 show that industry grew by 4.5 per cent while agriculture, forestry and fishing increased by 2 per cent between 2010 and 2011.

However, the greatest declines were experienced by building and construction (-13.5 per cent), and public administration and defence (-3.3 per cent). Other areas that saw annual declines were distribution, transport and communications (-1.6 per cent).

Exports performed strongly in 2011, while imports declined slight, which meant an overall growth of €7,245m in net exports.

Personal consumption fell by 2.7 per cent, while Government expenditure was down 3.7 per cent on 2010.

The largest percentage annual decline in 2011 was seen in capital formation (-10.6 per cent) but this was still on a smaller scale than previous years.

Read: We’re heading for a recession… oh, no we’re not?>

Additional reporting by Gavan Reilly

Read next:

Comments (42 Comments)

  • Why didn’t anybody tell me it went away in the first place ? I feel hurt …

    Reply
  • Can we be back in a recession if we never really came out of it? So…same old same old!

    Reply
  • Welcome home Enda

    Reply
  • Anybody in business could have told you this at the end of December.

    Why does the CSO take 3 months :(

    Reply
  • Were we ever out of it?

    Reply
  • But…but…but, thats not what Enda Kenny said in front of the watching world in the White House two days ago…

    Reply
  • Like a rocket huh noonan

    Reply
  • Well there’s a surprise! Yet another damning indictment for the governments policy of austerity and yet more proof, not that it was needed, that you can’t tax your way out of a recession!

    Reply
  • GNP is about the only revenue stream that the government can tax as the GDP contains largely untaxable multinational revenues. So when GNP slips that is bad news but the evidence is all around. Retail units are closing by the week, employment is falling, the number of self-employed is falling, getting paid for goods is a game of chance, but none of those figures trouble the government as it prepares to hand over about a third of a billion to tweet the Mahin Tribunal’s legal costs. The government would bankrupt the country (again) rather than compel the lawyers to take much less.

    Reply
  • Recession returns?… I didn’t know it had gone away

    Reply
  • The countries back in a recession ? Tell that to the 460,000 unemployed who are threatened of not being paid because of all the jobs being created by the goverment

    Reply
  • Dave 22/03/12 #

    I think this could best be described as “bumbling along the bottom”. Even where we have growth, its so Anaemic as to barely register.

    Reply
  • Neil 22/03/12 #

    Is it any surprise given we are trying to tax our way out of the crisis?

    Reply
  • The word is called depression.

    Until we stop the customer emigrating it will get worse.

    Reply
  • Proof austerity truly isn’t working. So much time wasted with counterproductive measures.

    Reply
    • The goal of austerity is to shrink public expenditure and repair the tax base so that we can have a balanced budget an sustainable economic growth.

      The policy during the boom was to erode the tax base and increase public expenditure (to buy votes) and replace it with taxes grown from unsustainable economic growth (property).

      What do you think austerity is designed to do? Do you think its to raise taxes, cut spending, and then there’ll be growth? I’m afraid not. It’s designed to shrink public expenditure, close the budget deficit, so that we’ll be in a position to borrow money and invest it strategically (through tax incentives or otherwise) in sustainable growth industries (not new houses and offices).

      The model is to:
      1. Repair the tax base, in so much as this can be borne. We’re probably close to the limits of what can be achieved. Increasing taxes while jobs are being lost, resulting in a reasonably static tax income, is probably a pretty good result.

      2. Cut public spending, in a controlled manner, with the support of external loans. If we’re cutting public spending and taking 3-4 billion out of the economy every year, with the economy flip-flopping between small contraction and small growth – then this is the best result we can hope for.

      3. Boost FDI and export-driven growth. Exports are robust. There has been a blip in Europe and the US of late, and this is translating into lower GDP growth, which has been carrying the can for our poor GNP as the internal economy (which included construction) imploded.

      Austerity sucks:
      - It sucks for you and me, as we can look forward to a lower standard of living with less net income and more expensive basics
      - It sucks for young graduates, as many will emigrate
      - It sucks for middle class parents, paying college fees for their emigrating kids and servicing big mortgages from the property bubble
      - It sucks for public sector workers, who will be forced to accept lower gross income as well as net income
      - It will suck afterwards for private sector workers, whose wages will become more competitive

      Austerity sucks, no one likes it, but….
      If we balance the budget by the end of 2015, flip-flopping in and out of recession, with no net GDP growth/contraction over the 4 years, and without creating/losing a single net new job, then austerity will have been a roaring success. We will have balanced the books, we’ll be able to borrow normally, and we can begin growing the economy on a sustainable path, carefully selecting where to give incentives.

      This is the goal of austerity, not putting borrowed (by your employer, government, you yourself) money back in your pocket.

      Reply
    • Nope, austerity is an attempt to bleed every penny out of the country to pay off the debts of foreign bond speculators and private banks

      Reply
    • And it is wholeheartedly approved by the Germans as its keeping the euro artificially low and handing their large manufacturing firms record exports

      Reply
    • @Joseph

      I think you’ll find that a deal on the bank debt will first require that we balance our books. Everyone is complaining that bankers are still getting paid when the country is broke, but so are many others. But there are three groups getting paid beyond our means:
      1. Bank bondholders
      2. Public sector workers, welfare recipients, any other recipient of public money
      3. Sovereign bondholders

      If we don’t pay 1, the owners of 3 are in trouble and put pressure on us. If we don’t pay 2, we’ll have anarchy (it’s clear 2. If we pay 2 and not 1, 3 will stop giving us cash and we can’t pay any of them. While many admire the Greek resistance, I’d personally rather not have violence on our streets. I would say 2 are in the complaining but putting up with it phase.

      When we couldn’t source 3 ourselves, the troika stepped in and provided money. Unfortunately this comes with strings. Now, when they looked at it again, they reduced our interest.

      We’ve hopefully just negotiated the beginning of a deal to turn 1 into 3. This is significant, as paying promissory notes would have amounted to current expenditure. If we can turn this into 3, for now, we are closer to balancing the budget (albeit shifting would-be current expenditure into long term debt)

      2, above, can only be addressed through austerity. We’re making it as gradual as possible, in the hope that the global picture will improve, and our repaired tax base will take off with people getting back into work and business/exports beginning to thrive.

      Getting out of trouble ultimately will depend on getting a deal on all three groups.
      - Austerity will force a deal on group 2, those paid from the public purse, and the taxpayers in general, as we’re emotional turkeys who won’t vote for Christmas.
      - When group 2 have been forced to take their share, and the government have shown they can balance the books, we’re likely to be facilitated in a deal with group 3. By the time this happens there will be no group 1 (bank debt), only sovereign debt.

      As we play by the big boys’ rules, we will be allowed to convert the bank debt into long term bonds (war reparations), which we will ultimately get a deal on. What would be the point in giving us a deal on debt now? It’d only encourage us to keep spending money we don’t have on services we can’t afford.

      Austerity sucks, but while we’re gonna be the first to pay, we won’t be the last. Remember, once we have the books balanced, we can tell our creditors to fook off!

      Reply
    • Ronan, im impressed with your take on this, i don’t fully understand the problem like the vast majority of the ordinary joe soaps, can i ask what your back ground is?

      Reply
  • breaking the backs of the Irish people doesn’t work! They will never learn.

    Reply
  • And cue calls for more public sector pay cuts.

    Reply
    • B7584 22/03/12 #

      And there’d be no harm in it.

      Reply
    • No harm? Ok then, cut people’s pay further and then watch the banks go cap in hand to us taxpayers again when their balance sheets crumble as a result of people not being able to pay their mortgages. Trust me, there are a large number of public sector workers who will have to default if pay is cut any further. The pay cuts for the majority in the public sector have been harsh in the extreme. By the way, do you know that there are more millionaires in Ireland now than there were in the Celtic Tiger years? Why not see if they’ll start coughing up a more amenable amount to help the country they make their millions in out of recession?

      Reply
    • B7584 23/03/12 #

      Im talking fat cats, pen pushers, paper chasing idiots with jobs for life milking it for all its worth while being as inefficent as they can be. Im not refering to gardai, nurses etc etc.

      Reply
  • So Mr Noonan … you were saying something about a rocket taking off …

    … Houston, we have a problem

    Reply
  • And so it continues ……
    Amazing that they publish this today ! The day the Mahon Report is published , maybe I am being cynical ?………..No thats not it . I am not wrong .
    So ok we are in another recession .and I missed the last one sooo much !
    When did the last one finish ?

    Reply
  • another soft landing so..its great we are trusting our leaders that by the time of 2040 we might be bk on track….well done noonan…

    Reply
  • Yebbut yebbut yebbut… the eurozone shrank by 0.3% in Q4 of 2011 so we’re actually outperforming on average. #Schadenfreude

    Reply
  • Maybe if this goverment stopped trying to tax its way out of the current debts then maybe people can spend,
    If they keeping dipping into our wage packet,Where do they expect us to get money from.
    @Susie no your not

    Reply
  • God it’s unbelievable the amount of people on here who blame government for their own failings. Government is by no means innocent and all those found guilty of corruption should face the full letter of the law. But government didn’t force you not to save, government didn’t force you to buy into their believe that the unrealistic gravy train would never end. Government didn’t force you to buy buy materialistic goods as you choose etc etc etc. Take responsibility for our own actions and clean your own affairs before blaming anybody else or any other entity. Don’t pay taxes or accept austerity and we’ll see how quickly things get better. Finger pointing for the sake of it achieves nothing except to falsely justify your own poor decisions. You repair the roof on a sunny day, for years everybody thought the storm wouldn’t come but now it has and he consequences of not repairing the roof when the opportunity was present are being rued! By the way the majority of the electorate re-elected the government and I’ll bet half of those complaining the most were first in line to support tax cuts, higher government etc during the boom and the re-election of those they now loathe. The truth hurts but it’s the truth and I’m sure this post will not go down well with the majority in here who simply finger point and blame anybody else but themselves for their issues, responsibility is required in good and bad times. Sadly a lot of people want a Nanny state in the bad time but complete autonomy in the good!

    Reply
    • Dave 22/03/12 #

      While that is certainly food for thought, it lets the banking sector and elite, responsible for a massive part of this crisis, completely off the hook. It also ignores the substantial savings held in Irish banks (you said we didnt save) and the fact that people in every bloody country spend in the good times, its not just an Irish phenomenon. You also Ignore the fact that it was banking debt that broke the camel’s back and forced an alleged bailout which will prolong, rather than shorten, the misery. While I admire your ethic of personal responsibility, and accept some of what you say is true, I feel your points are one sided and ignore a huge part of the current difficulties.

      Reply
  • Went back into recession??? Didnt know we’d come out of it

    Reply
  • Actually Laughed Out Loud reading the headline.
    It’s hardly a surprise – unless of course you believe the comical ESRI/government projections.

    Reply
  • follow the herd u will never learn u are heading for the wave c cliff

    Reply

Add New Comment