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Dublin: 11 °C Monday 20 May, 2013

Consumer spending power to stabilise this year, improve in 2014

Working households with mortgages will see the greatest growth in spending power while unemployed households will fare worst.

Image: Photocall Ireland

CONSUMER SPENDING POWER is forecast to stabilise in 2013 and improve in 2014 with the deal on the promissory notes expected to boost confidence.

IBEC’s latest Consumer Monitor predicts a slight (0.2 per cent) increase in spending power this year with a growth of 0.4 per cent next year.

Working households with mortgages will see the greatest increase in their spending power this year as the low mortgage interest costs of 2012 carry over into 2013.

However unemployed households as well as those in fixed incomes will fare worse as increased costs, such as health,  hitting those on fixed incomes worse than working households.

IBEC said that in recent years living standards of unemployed households have been somewhat protected by low inflation. Average prices fell sharply during 2009-2010, and despite a more recent return to inflation, price levels in the economy remain 2.5 per cent below summer 2008. However, over the coming years social welfare will remain fixed at best and price increases will continue to reduce spending power.

The impact of the property tax will also heap an additional cost of €150 on average on consumers in 2013, or 0.3 per cent of after-tax income per household.

The savings ratio has fluctuated in recent years, peaking at 10 per cent in 2009, dipping to 5 per cent in 2011 and rising again in 2012 to over 8 per cent. A return to a more normal level of 5-6 percent would deliver a boost to domestic economy.

Commenting on the figures today, IBEC economist Reetta Suonperä said that getting people back to work must be a priority and the lack of consumer confidence and weak domestic demand are the main causes of the unemployment crisis.

He said that while consumer sentiment is expected to recover this year “any unforeseen shocks pose a risk to the fragile recovery seen to date”.

Read: Businesses and financial institutions hail promissory notes deal>
Read: Less than 10% of retail employers will increase pay in 2013>

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Comments (20 Comments)

  • sean 11/02/13 #

    Dear ibec , here,s few small examples to prove my spending power will not be increasing this year.
    VHi up €300
    House insurance up €100 year despite no claims.
    Wife,s car insurance will increase by an average of €200 according to our insurance comp due to the Eu law on equality
    Potatoes have gone from 2.49 a kg to 2.99
    Dunnes cooked chicken up from €4.44to €5.49
    Pending property tax
    Further increases to vhi
    My spending power is all but dead and buried

    Reply
    • The V in VHI stands for voluntary, shop around for plans or drop coverage, write down the value of your home given property values have fallen 50% and the insurance will fall, your car insurance falling should compensate for wife’s rising, ditch the potatoes you likely don’t need the carbs anyway and cook your own chicken lazy!

      Reply
    • sean 11/02/13 #

      I did indeed shop around for health insurance , the plan we are on is a corporate on , Aviva where another €50 dearer and my own company,s in-house medical insurance was even dearer again ,
      House value is wrote down by 60k , but according to the insurance companies i now live in a high flood risk area ……despite the place never flooding ,ever.

      No need for the lazy bit , i do a heck of a lot of home cooking , but a cooked chicken saves myself some time due to both myself and my wife working late plus U can get 2dinners and.some lunches out if one as for potatoes…..good for cloesteral levels , plus encourages my we man to eat potatoes and veg .
      Some things are simply necessary

      Reply
    • A stabilization cannot happen if property tax and water charges are introduced. This should be apparent to anyone with the slightest knowledge of economics.

      Reply
  • Ibec the same crowd who are try to drive down the wages in public and private sectors, yet forecast more spending power, your having a laugh

    Reply
  • IBEC = Ireland’s Best Economic Chancers.

    Reply
  • Keep horsing down that kool-aid IBEC, Edna and the other schoolteachers will love you for it

    Reply
  • I totally agree with IBEC on “Consumer spending power to stabilise this year”. We will stabilise spending but on essentials only.

    My mortgage did lower in 2012 but the amount it dropped was the same as the Government took in extra taxes for 2013, even before property taxes.

    I am working and consider this a bonus. In the 6 years with my current employer, (no pay increase even for the extra responsibilities I have taken on to stay in work). Unlike lots of individuals I do not get pay increments. Petrol has over doubled from about €0.80 to over €1.60 per litre. I still have to drive the same distance to work, as there is no public transport available. I pray that my second hand 9 year old car does not need major repairs, or I could just find myself out of work. The insurance on this car went up again. Road tax went up again. All reducing my spending power.

    My house is now lower in value but the insurance is higher, and we have property tax coming. More spending power reductions.

    My income tax rates have also increased in this period. Altogether cut backs and tax increases in the budget of last December alone have reduced our spending power by almost €2k per year, again lowering of our spending power.

    We officially learned this morning the price of the standard shopping bag has gone up by 12% in two years. Not that we did not know this already.

    I am 15 years married this year, for our 10th anniversary we went away for a weekend. We had planned to do the same this year, having not done so during the last 4 years. What we will actually do this year is buy a take away pizza to share with the kids. We don’t have spare money for anything else, like driving ½ hr to the nearest cinema.

    Gum shields to allow the 3 kids keep playing GAA, the only organised sport where we live is costing €45 and this is before we talk about membership and second hand boots & socks & shorts. I used to volunteer my time but with trying to keep a job by working extra unpaid hours this has stopped.

    I won’t even talk about the rip off prices for school uniforms and books for “free” education.

    Health insurance is a thing of the past. At 45 years of age this is the first year since my childhood this has happened. My father before me paid my VHI until I started working. I am unable to offer the same medical protection to my children.

    We used to take a 1 week family holiday with the kids, only 2 of those holidays were outside Ireland. This year weather permitting we will be camping in the Costa Del Backyard, otherwise the borrowed tent will be returned unpacked.

    So IBEC you are right our consumer spending will stabilise this year. It will stabilise to the essentials of keeping horse meat in our stomachs, clothing on our backs & enough fuel in our old cars to stay in work. We will not however spend money on items that will improve the economy, even though as a country we must outperform the ECB interest rate by 1% just to remain stationary and we must maintain this for the next 40 years.

    Reply
  • Consumer confidence is great . But where is the extra spending money coming from

    Reply
  • So, if i take home €500 a week ill have an extra €2 a week to spend ( 0.4% of 500)? And ibec reckon this could be a game changer? Are they retarded, seriously?

    Reply
  • “CONSUMER SPENDING POWER is forecast to stabilise in 2013 and improve in 2014 with the deal on the promissory notes expected to boost confidence.”

    Why is The Journal repeating this bullshit that there was a “deal” last week. There was no deal. We the Irish people were saddled with a 40 year mortgage by Fine Gael and Labour to pay gambling bondholders.

    Reply
  • Lies, lies and more lies.

    Reply
  • According to the news today the shopping basket has gone up 12 % in the last two years in some cases items have gone up 38% , and the supermarkets using price matching or in other words price fixing , not a good idea for the customer just another way of ripping off the costomer , nothing much has changed we are still living in rip off Ireland.

    Reply
  • Heres hoping because it can’t get much worse.
    Hopefully a bit of consumer confidence will bring some spending power.

    Reply
    • I can’t remember the last time I heard such nonsense. At least two more austerity budgets to come, more cuts in public service pay, then we have property and water charges to contend with plus whatever else the crowd in charge dream up. I don’t hear of too many people getting wage rises, and as for reducing mortgage interest rates, we might see another .25 cut, and as if that will make a big difference. Food prices are rocketing too. This crowd IBEC are deluded.

      Reply
    • Scarr 11/02/13 #

      I can’t help but think its wishful thinking. I do hope it’s not though. We all know water and home-owner taxes are upon us. Cost of food is up. Health insurance through the roof and still 2 / 3 austerity budgets too. That’s before the ecb start normalising their interest rates which will bring our own mortgage crisis back to the fore. Maybe I’m wrong.

      Reply
    • According to ibec mortgage rates dropped last year and will drop again this year! Bullshit!

      Reply
  • My consumer spending is double in Q1 alone. Been furnishing my apartment since I moved in 6 months ago and just put the electronics in. With the economy turning and job situation improving I have to keep less of a short term cushion in case I loose my job etc and can dip into savings I imagine others are in a similar position.

    Reply
  • It is good to see things are looking up.

    Reply

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