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Dublin: 8 °C Friday 24 May, 2013

Central Bank revises downward forecast for economic recovery

Public sector employment is expected to fall this year but should be slightly outweighed by renewed expansion in private sector hiring.

Central Bank of Ireland on Dame Street, Dublin.
Central Bank of Ireland on Dame Street, Dublin.
Image: Informatique via Flickr

THE CENTRAL BANK of Ireland has revised down its forecast for the country’s economic recovery in its first Quarterly Bulletin for 2013.

The Central Bank said that while the forecast is for a continuation of the “gradual recovery” in economic activity, a slightly slower pace than previously predicted is expected.

While GDP growth is expected to rise to 1.3 per cent in 2013, this represents a downward revision of 0.4 per cent
to the previous forecast by the bank. GNP growth is projected to moderate to 0.5 per cent this year.

Though employment declined last year, the pace of decline was more moderate than in previous years, the Central Bank said. Public sector employment is expected to fall this year but should be slightly outweighed by renewed expansion in private sector hiring, it said.

Employment levels are expected to increase by 0.3 percent next year and 1.2 per cent in 2014. The Central Bank projects that the unemployment rate this year will be 14.5 per cent and will decrease slightly in 2014 to 13.9 per cent.

The bulletin said that weakening global demand has slowed Irish export growth and, given the on-going reliance on exports to offset domestic economic weakness, GDP growth has eased somewhat compared to 2011.

Weaker external demand is set to dampen Irish export growth this year compared to earlier expectations by the bank while domestic demand is forecast to continue along its slow path towards stabiliation.

A further decline in consumer spending is expected, though at a much more moderate pace than in recent years.

Read: Central Bank governor believes there will be ‘permanent loan modifications’>

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Comments (18 Comments)

  • The leaked bundestag document last week said exactly the same and the muppets in government said the opposite.
    same shite different day!

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  • You would not need to be an economist to know that…

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  • Looks like il be staying in oz for a while yet then

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  • Julie 29/01/13 #

    There is no recovery their cant be when all our money is bing taken out of the economy to pay for the mistakes of others and no money left to invest in domestic economy. It pretty simple to understand so why won’t our government wake up and realise this.

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  • What a surprise, you can’t cut your way out of a recession. I bet there will some fg muppet on the news tonight dismissing this report and saying we’re moving in the right direction.

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  • The central bank of magical make believe got it wrong again .Fear not the mystical wizard Honahan will sprinkle some fairydust and all will be well again in the land of ghouls and goblins.

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  • These people are totally clueless. We would get something just as accurate (not) & importantly with roughly the same intellectual backing to it, from Mystic Meg.

    The Central Bank (& all the rest of the mainstream institutions) reference the same ‘models’ & exactly the same economics thinking, as was used before the crisis, which afforded them not the slightest clue any ‘crisis’ was imminent.

    Thinking and models which regarding banking and debt as irrelevant to economies’ outcomes. The peddlers of this neoliberal driven dogma have neither apologised or instigated meaningful correction.

    They have used the same thinking to ‘inform’ their garbage utterances since, and drive the Eurozone into the ground, totally unnecessarily, with years of economy wrecking ‘austerity’. (Austerity for the many that is, not the top few percent making these decisions.)

    There is no recovery, nor one coming any time soon. These numbers, already suggesting stagnation, not growth, are pure spin & will be downgraded again in a few months as has been the case every few months over the last five years.

    Greece and Spain are going to implode soon – their economies are in worse shape than ours. Gernany’s economy contracted in the last quarter of 2012.

    Austerity is doing exactly what its critics have said would result. Who gains from this? Well, not the majority of citizens. But there is a great opportunity for buying firesale assets for the top few percent – those running banks, politics etc.

    One thing these last few years should have taught us. Political leaders & their advisers at the top of the civil service have not operated in the interests of the majority of citizens & are not now.

    There are solutions. The deeply flawed by design (of bankers) Euro system requires serious reform. In some form, this going to happen anyway because it is not sustainable. (Merkel is just can-kicking now until September hoping to get re-elected before it all falls apart.)

    The Euro can easily be reformed to quickly return growth, employment & prosperity. But it will require people leading it who are not just looking after themselves and the interests of the top.

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    • Lol “Gernany”

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    • @ Ailish

      Haha, yes – Gernany – typo there, but strangely, somewhat vaguely fits perhaps with Frau Merkel at the helm eh?

      While I’m here, George Monbiot has a great piece about ‘elites’ at the Grauniad today – he’s talking from personal experience growing up in private schools in Britain, but I think what he expresses is just as valid for Ireland & much anywhere. It needs to change if our next generation or three are not to face a very bleak future indeed.

      I think it’s quite connected with this nonsense from the Central Bank today. These people are just living in their own little bubble that bears little relation to what goes on the real world.

      An extract:

      “Last year the former Republican staffer Mike Lofgren wrote something very similar about the dominant classes of the US: “the rich elites of this country have far more in common with their counterparts in London, Paris, and Tokyo than with their fellow American citizens … the rich disconnect themselves from the civic life of the nation and from any concern about its well being except as a place to extract loot. Our plutocracy now lives like the British in colonial India: in the place and ruling it, but not of it.”

      Secession from the concerns and norms of the rest of society characterises any well established elite. Our own ruling caste, schooled separately, brought up to believe in justifying fairytales, lives in a world of its own, from which it can project power without understanding or even noticing the consequences. A removal from the life of the rest of the nation is no barrier to the desire to dominate it. In fact, it appears to be associated with a powerful sense of entitlement.

      So if you have wondered how the current government can blithely engage in the wholesale transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich, how its frontbench can rock with laughter as it truncates the livelihoods of the poorest people of this country, why it commits troops to ever more pointless post-colonial wars, here, I think, is part of the answer. Many of those who govern us do not in their hearts belong here. They belong to a different culture, a different world, which knows as little of its own acts as it knows of those who suffer them.”

      http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jan/28/rich-born-to-rule-fatal

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  • Why do we listen to these people?

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  • They don’t really know how to predict anything these days…moving sands.

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  • Its time for the stability, jobs, growth BS again then.

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  • peter 29/01/13 #

    The central bank went asleep for a few years & by the sounds of it they are still a bit groggy.

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  • Wow,theres a surprise!! Not.. Its gone to the stage now where its actually pointless in having the ESRI and CB making economic forecasts as at the end of each relative period,both will have made about 4 revisions, downward also of course

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